Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (Newmarket 3.35) Analysis
15:35 at Newmarket Racecourse on 7th June
The last eight 1,000 Guineas winners had all had at least four runs before winning the first fillies’ Classic of the season and the likely favourite Quadrilateral could possibly have done with a prep run after looking green when winning the Fillies’ Mile last season on her third start. It could be that the daughter of Frankel is a superstar, but Roger Charlton’s first three runners since lockdown beat just eight of 34 rivals between them.
Favourites also don’t have a great record in the 1,000 Guineas, with Minding being the only one in the last nine years. The next shortest-priced winner in that period was 13/2, while other winners have been returned at 14/1, 16/1, 25/1, and 66/1.
Having said that, Quadrilateral still looks the best of the English-trained horses. Raffle Prize is her equal on ratings on a mark of 114, but the jury is out as to whether her excellent trainer Mark Johnston can stretch this fast filly’s stamina to last a mile. This tenacious filly will be a danger to all if he can. The likes of Summer Romance and Under The Stars also must prove their stamina, but Rose Of Kildare should get a mile and is another interesting runner for Mark Johnston.
Another Important statistic is that Irish-trained runners have won five of the last eight runnings of the 1,000 Guineas, with Aidan O’Brien responsible for four of those winners.
Jessica Harington saddles Millisle, who has yet to finish out of the first two in five races, including when beating Raffle Prize by 1¾ lengths in a Group 1 here at Newmarket last Autumn. The way she ran on late that day suggests she could stay the extra two-furlongs, but the third there Tropbeau was a disappointing favourite when only fourth in the French 1,000 Guineas.