The Matchbet Betting Podcast Roseberry Handicap (Sat 30th @ 15:15) was first run in 1988 and it has taken place on the all-weather track at Kempton since 2006. It is a class two handicap run over 1 mile 2 furlongs and 219 yards. Notable winners include Big Country who has gone on to prove a high-class all-weather performer.
Check out our trends, analysis, and free tip for the Roseberry Handicap.
Roseberry Handicap 10-Year-Trends
Nine of the last 10 winners were aged either four or five, whilst only horse in the last decade has overcome a double-figure draw.
Nine out of 10 winners were also rated between 84 and 95 and carried between 8-6 and 9-4.
Seven winners had run between 14 and 88 days prior to success, but three winners did overcome absences of between 154 days and 289 days. Seven winners were priced up between 7/2 and 8/1, with the other three returned at odds of 12/1, 14/1, and 16/1.
Four of the last eight winners had won on their previous outing.
Roseberry Handicap 2019 Summary
Fire Fighting, Kelly’s Dino, Nayel, Manjaam, Lexington Law, and Dommersen are all older than five, whilst Island Brave, Cosmeapoliton, Casper The Cub, Pipes Of Peace, Star Of Southwold, and Soto Sizzler are drawn wider than ideal. Count Calabash may also struggle off top-weight.
That leaves us with a short-list of just three ideal candidates who are Alternative Fact, Dessert Wind, and Forbidden Planet.
Alternative Fact ran well on all three starts as a two-year-old and that meant he started life on a mark of 101 as a three-year-old. That proved beyond him, but he’s now down to a mark of 95 after seven winless runs. But some of those runs showed promise including when twice beaten less than three lengths. Having reached a career low-mark, connections gelded him over the winter and that could allow him to shown significant improvement here. The booking of French jockey Gerald Mosse also catches the eye.
Dessert Wind started his career in much lower company, but notched up a hat-trick on the all-weather in the first couple of months of 2018. He then ran respectably in a handicap on the all-weather and two more handicaps on turf. He should be suited by another slight step up in trip but he’s not been seen for 260 days and he makes his comeback in a period when his stable has been very quiet.
Forbidden Planet had a very low-key start to his career when running unplaced in three maidens. That earned him a handicap mark of 68 and he’s since won two handicaps off marks of 69 and 78. He was beaten off a mark of 84 last time but, though he’s been raised a further two pounds to a mark of 86, the winner that day has won twice since off marks three pounds and five pounds higher. Two of the last six winners also came out of stall-one.
Roseberry Handicap 2019 Verdict
Dessert Wind and Alternative Fact could both improve this season as four-year-old but both return after long absences with their stables relatively quiet. Alternative Fact is just preferred of those two as being gelded could help him concentrate on is racing.
However, Forbidden Planet has to be the pick. He looks an ideal stats-fit for this race and proved his well-being with a decent second 37 days ago to a horse that has shown he was well-handicapped by winning twice off higher-marks since. In a field where many horses don’t look typical winners of this race, Forbidden Planet looks solid each-way material, with seven winners in the last decade returned at single-figure odds.