The Lincoln Handicap (Sat 30th @ 15:35) was first run in 1849, making it one of the oldest flat racing handicaps run in England. It takes place on the straight mile course at Doncaster, where it has been run since 1965. It is traditionally the highlight of the opening day of the new turf flat racing season each year.
Check out our trends, analysis, and free tip for the 2019 Lincoln Handicap.
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Lincoln Handicap 10-Year-Trends
All the last 10 winners were aged either four, five, or six. The three winning favourites in the last decade were all aged four and were returned at odds of between 3/1 and 5/1. The other seven winners were all sent-off between 12/1 and 25/1.
Nine of the last 10 winners carried between 8-12 and 9-4 and all those winners were rated between 95 and 104. In the last five years, the ratings band of the winners has been just 99 to 102.
Seven winners had not raced for at least 152 days, with the other three winners all having raced in Dubai between 21 and 44 days earlier.
Five of the last 10 editions of the Lincoln Handicap have been run on going with good somewhere in the description. These have been won by horses in stalls 20, 15, 12, 16, and 9, but placed horses did come out of stalls ranging from two to 21.
Only three of the last 10 winners had won last time out, two of which were four-year-old favourites.
Lincoln Handicap Summary 2019
Only three of the field for the 2019 Lincoln Handicap are aged older than six and these are Breden, Chatez, and Third Time Lucky.
Five horses will have to carry more than any other horse has carried to victory this season and these are Another Batt, Safe Voyage, Masham Star, Aquarium, and Zwayan.
No horse is rated lower than 96 but a further eight horses are rated lower than any of the last five winners. This list is comprised of Ripp Orf, Kynren, Wahaash, Raydiance, Humbert, Venture Knight, Great Prospector, and Beringer.
Silver Quartz and Chiefofchiefs have also raced in the last five weeks in this country on the all-weather, which no winner has done this decade.
Those stats narrow the field down to just four horses which are Auxerre, Saltonstall, South Seas, and Waarif.
It’s no surprise to see the bookies are taking no chances with Auxerre, as the Charlie Appleby trained horse would be following in the footsteps of other lightly-raced winning four-year-olds, and he looks the proverbial potential group horse running in a handicap. His connections also won the 2016 renewal with Secret Brief, though he had wintered in Dubai. As this year’s contest is likely to be run on good ground, his draw in stall-17 could also be advantageous judging on past editions. The only thing that’s off-putting is the price.
Saltonstall is an interesting challenger from Ireland but Irish horses don’t have a great record in the race. He’s also two pounds higher than when runner-up in a similar contest at the Curragh last year, after which his form was below expectations. It could be that a change of stable will bring about some improvement but the form of that race at the Curragh hasn’t been boosted subsequently by the horses who finished close-up. He’s drawn in stall 18.
South Seas is more interesting, as he was a high-class group three winning two-year-old who was rated 110 at the start of his three-year-old career. He disappointed in just two runs that season but is now down to a mark of 100 after showing a bit of promise as a four-year-old. He’s also having his first run for the up and coming stable of Phil Kirby who has fired in seven winners from 16 runners since the middle of March. The booking of Jamie Spencer is another positive as he’s two winners from six rides for the stable. He’s drawn in stall-16.
The other stats-fit is Waarif, who hails from the stable of David O’Meara who has had a horse placed in each of the last five editions of this race. However, this six-year-old looks more exposed than many of his rivals and he’s rated five pounds higher than he was for his last win. He’s drawn in stall-15.
Lincoln Handicap 2019 Verdict
Waarif looks the most exposed of the quartet of horses that fit all the stats. Saltonstall could also be worth taking on Irish horses don’t have a great record here and his Irish form may not be that strong.
It’s impossible to crab the chances of Auxerre and it would be no surprise if he wins this before going on to be the best horse in this race. However, at around four-times the price, it could be worth taking a chance on South Seas on his first run for Phil Kirby, who is having a great season and has proven he can do great things with horses he gets from other trainers. He’s also been rated much higher in the past and he has a similar look to the 2015 winner Gabrial.