Free Racing Tips For Newbury – 2nd March 2019
Newbury Racecourse stages its Greatwood Charity Raceday on Saturday (March 2) and its one of the more interesting cards on offer with less than two weeks to go to the Cheltenham Festival.
The main highlights are the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase and the Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase – and you can check out our trends, analysis and free tips for both of those races.
William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase (2.05)
The Greatwood Veteran’s Handicap is a great chance for horses aged 10 and older to claim a first prize of over £18,000 and it’s also a possible warm up for the Grand National for some of the higher-rated runners. It takes place over 3 miles 1 furlong and 214 yards and the 2019 renewal will be the tenth running.
Greatwood Veteran’s Handicap Chase Trends
Eight of the nine winners so far have been 10-year-olds, with the other winner being aged 12. The winners so far have fallen into two distinct categories, with the five winners rated between 139 and 146 carrying between 11-4 and 11-12, whilst the four winners rated between 120 and 128 that have carried less than 10-7.
All the winners had run between 10 and 91 days earlier. The first eight winners were all returned at SPs ranging between 9/4 and 7/1 but last year’s winner Just A Par was returned at 14/1.
Venetia Williams and Phillip Hobbs are the only trainers with a runner this year that have previously trained a winner of the race.
Greatwood Veteran’s Handicap Chase Summary
There are only five 10-year-olds in this year’s field, and the trends suggest that it could be worth discounting four of them for a variety of reasons. Joe Farrell hasn’t raced for over 300 days, whilst Marchillac, Ziga Boy, and Shanroe Santos all fall outside the two typical ratings bands that previous winners have fallen into. That leaves us with the bottom-weight Perform who is rated 125 and is also trained by Phillip Hobbs.
Greatwood Veteran’s Handicap Chase Free Tip:
Perform (Each-Way) @ 11.00
William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2.40)
The Greatwood Gold Cup handicap is a grade three race run over 2 miles 3 furlongs and 187 yards. It is open to horses aged five and older and was first run in 2004. It offers a first prize of over £28,000.
Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase Trends
Trainer Paul Nicholls has often been the man to follow in this race, and he’s trained eight winners in total, with six of those coming in the last nine years.
Interestingly, none of the last nine winners had won last-time out and those horses had raced between seven and 70 days previously. Winners had also been aged either six, seven eight, or 10.
Ratings or weight carried doesn’t help us narrow down the field much, with winners rated between 128 and 149 having carried anywhere between 10-2 and 11-12. SP’s have varied greatly too, with winners returned at odds ranging from 3/1 to 18/1.
Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase Summary
Valdez and Shanahan’s Turn are both older than 10, whilst Gala Ball, Master Dee, and Javert have longer than usual absences from the tracks to overcome.
Dolos and Warrior’s Tale, despite being trained from Paul Nicholls, are rated higher than any of the last nine winners, whilst Mercian Prince, Happy Diva, and Value At Risk all won last time out.
That leaves us with just six runners and the one to be on could be San Benedeto. The Paul Nicholls’ trained eight-year-old has been asked to run in much better company this year and, after some admittedly disappointing performances, the handicapper has dropped his mark from a season-opening mark of 158 to 147. He drops in class here at a course where he’s placed twice from three runs and he could easily run much better than his odds say he will.
Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase Free Tip:
San Benedeto (Each-Way) @ 17.00