September Stakes 2019 Analysis
14:05 at Kempton on 7th Sept
The September Stakes was established in 1979 and is a Group 3 Race open to horses aged three and older. It is run over 1 mile 3 furlongs and 219 yards and notable recent winners include Enable, Jack Hobbs, and Prince Bishop.
Age hasn’t been a significant factor in the last decade, with horses aged as young as three and as old as seven winning. The draw tends to favour horses drawn low, and six of the last 10 winners have been drawn in stalls one, two, or three. However, winners have also come from stalls six, seven, and eight.
Only four winners had won their previous race, with two finishing second and one fourth, but three had finished ninth or worse on their previous outing. Winners have also returned from breaks as short as 17 days and as long as 161 days.
Saeed Bin Suroor has been the most successful trainer with three winners of the September Stakes in the last decade, whilst John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute have both trained two winners.
12 runners make the 2019 September Stakes more competitive than any of the last 10 editions, and there are plenty of interesting candidates. It’s no surprise to see Best Solution heading the market, as he’s trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and is officially rated 9lb higher than the second-best horse. The winner of last year’s Group 1 Caulfield Cup has the potential to outclass his rivals, but he ran poorly both times he ran on an artificial surface earlier in his career, whilst his draw in stall-nine isn’t ideal.
The second-highest rated horse is Thundering Blue but, though the 6-year-old was once rated 119, his current mark of 112 still flatters him on this year’s form. He also ran badly on his one previous run at Kempton.
Worth Waiting is one rival that could appreciate a return to this sort of trip, but she is unproven on the all-weather and may struggle to carry her 5lb penalty to success in this company.
Any horse John Gosden that runs in the September Stakes has to be respected, but this year’s representative Royal Line isn’t in the same class as his last two winners Enable and Jack Hobbs. He’s also unproven on the all-weather and is drawn wide. Meanwhile draws in stalls 10 and 12 for Mootasadir and Pivoine may be tough to overcome.
That’s why it could be worth taking a chance on course specialist Prince Of Arran, who is rated just 3lb lower than the second-best horse. He does have to bounce back from some mediocre runs, but the 6-year-old has won three of his five course starts and looks ideally berthed to track the pace in stall-three.
London Mile Handicap 2019 Analysis
15:15 at Kempton on 7th Sept
The London Mile Handicap is a class 2 handicap run over a mile and it is open to horses aged three and older. Recent winners have included War Glory and Brilliant Vanguard.
Fields of between 14 and 16 runners have contested the last 10 editions of the London Mile Handicap, but only 11 horses are set to line-up for the 2019 renewal. This may affect the draw, but it’s still worth noting that nine of the last 10 winners were drawn no lower than stall-seven.
The last four winners were also rated between 89 and 94 and all carried more than 9-0, suggesting classier horses have prevailed. The last four winners have also raced in the 17 days prior to winning this race.
The ratings of recent winners suggest the top four horses are the ones to concentrate on, but Motawaj finished last after a 15lb hike in the weights last time, whilst King’s Slipper returns from a 73-day break.
Kuwait Currency has chances, but Kasbaan is just preferred in stall-10. He’s two from two on polytrack and his shrewd trainer Michael Appleby has targeted and won big handicaps for this horse’s connections before.