Premier League New Year Value Punts
It looks like one of the bookies’ New Year resolutions is to take-cover in regard to the big Premier League Teams after several accumulators have been landed in recent weeks. However, the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United looks so short on Monday that a value-hunter like myself just has to find some alternative value-bets rather than backing those three teams at odds of 2/11, 4/11 and 7/10.
Manchester City vs Burnley (Monday 3.00)
Think Manchester City vs Burnley, and the majority of punters would instantly think Manchester City win. However, at what sort of price does the draw become attractive? For me, that price is definitely the 15/2 that’s available here. Burnley may have lost 2-1 to City earlier this season, but they did snatch a 2-2 draw in the 2014/15 season, and they’re not playing bad, even if their best form has been at home. Meanwhile, City have only won 2 of their last 6 home Premier League games, drawing 3 of those against Middleton, Everton and Southampton. A win for City would come as no surprise at all – but 15/2 the draw just looks too big to resist.
Draw @ 15/2 (Various)
Sunderland vs Liverpool (Monday 3.00)
Liverpool have won 4 of their last 6 visits to Sunderland, including their last 2, both of which were won to nil. They also beat Sunderland 2-0 at home earlier in the season, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4 Premier League matches to nil against stronger opposition. Sunderland fans will take positives from 3 recent home wins against Watford, Leicester and Hull, but losses against Arsenal and Chelsea suggest they’ll struggle against a similar class team. It’s hard to be enthused about 4/11 for a Liverpool win – but the 5/4 they win to nil looks a bit of value.
Liverpool to win to nil @ 5/4 (Boylesports)
West Ham vs Manchester United (Monday 5.15)
There’s no doubt that Man United are finding their feet under Jose Mourinho’s guidance, and five straight wins sees them priced-up at 7/10 to win away at West Ham. However, West Ham have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 5 Premier League games, and also won this fixture last year, as well as grabbing a draw at Old Trafford earlier this season. United may continue their fine form, but I’m happy to lay them at anything around the 1.7 mark on Betfair.
Lay Manchester United @ 1/7 (Betfair)