Title challengers Chelsea (home to Newcastle) and Manchester City (away at Everton) face two fixtures in which they don’t have great records but, with lots of uncertainty at Newcastle and Everton struggling, it seems best to look elsewhere for this week’s football betting tips.
Stoke and QPR will both be desperate to end some lengthy losing statistics, whilst Man United vs Southampton and Sunderland vs Liverpool look to offer some value plays.
Arsenal vs Stoke
Stan James may well get steam-rollered this weekend as the big-hitters are likely to be queuing up to back Arsenal at 1/2 to beat a Stoke side that hasn’t managed to take a point from this fixture since 1983 though, surprisingly, they have a remarkable good record at home against Arsenal. All statistics come to an end eventually – but, hopefully, not this week.
3 points Arsenal @1/2 Stan James
Burnley vs QPR
A match that might not appeal to many, but it’s a real relegation dog-fight and victory would take either one-step closer to survival.
Burnley’s home record of two wins, four draws and four defeats doesn’t exactly set the pulse racing, but it looks pretty good compared to QPR’s away record of 9 straight defeats.
QPR did beat Burnley 2-0 at home in December but, having amassed 19 points at home compared to none away, that may be best ignored. Burnley also have the superior record in recent renewals, winning three and drawing one of the last four – making the 5/4 a home win look the right play.
2 points Burnley @ 5/4 Ladbrokes or Coral
Sunderland vs Liverpool
Both teams are safely through to the 4th round of the FA Cup, but won’t be resting on their laurels here with Sunderland just three points above the drop-zone and Liverpool desperate to continue their good run of form to give them a chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
Sunderland haven’t won at home in the Premier League since October 4th, and have lost 3 and drawn 3 of their home games since then, whilst Liverpool have lost 5 and won 4 of their away games this season.
The last five renewals are pretty even with Sunderland 2 wins, Liverpool 2 wins and 1 draw, whilst Sunderland also managed to hold Liverpool to a goalless draw at Anfield in December.
None of the stats suggest Liverpool deserve to be odds-on and, with Sunderland having drawn 11 of their 20 Premier League games this season, the 13/5 they make it 12 draws looks the value.
2 points Draw @ 13/5 Bet Victor
Manchester United vs Southampton
Manchester United have won one and drawn one of the two recent renewals of this fixture, and 4/5 looks a little short for them to beat the best Southampton side there’s been for many a year. The draw is tempting at 14/5, but the best value may well be the 20/23 that both teams score. Both teams have scored in the last four games between the clubs, whilst United have failed to score just twice this season and Southampton just four-times.
3 points both teams to score @ 20/23 Bet Victor