The weekend brings the final two quarter-finals of Euro 2016, and the winner may well be the team who progresses from the Germany vs Italy clash. However, France will be happy to take on the winners of that game if they can get past Iceland.
Germany vs Italy (Saturday 8pm)
Germany 13/10, Draw 33/16, Italy 33/10
If you’d have given me a grand to put on just one team at the start of Euro 2016 it would have been Germany, but it’s the Italians who have impressed me most so far in beating Belgium and Spain, looking the best team on both occasions. Okay, so they got beat by the Republic of Ireland, but they didn’t have their best team on the field, and that’s the only goal they’ve conceded so far in the competition, and in their last 6 matches. Italy also have by far the best record in their 20 head-to-heads with Germany, winning 11 and drawing 4, whilst Germany have yet to win a competitive match against the Italians. Italy therefore look decent value at 33/10, but the problem with backing them to win is the fact that Germany have yet to concede a goal in the competition, and the World Cup winners arguably have one of their best teams of all time. Therefore, the best play maybe to lay Germany in 90-minutes, and back the Italians to win in extra-time and on penalties.
Lay Germany @ 2.34 (Betfair Exchange)
Italy to win in extra-time @ 16/1 (Betbright)
Italy to win on penalties @ 9/1 (Betbright)
France vs Iceland (Sunday 8pm)
Match Betting: France 8/11, Draw 7/2, Iceland 17/2
Three draws is all Iceland have managed against France in 11 previous encounters, but it’s fair to say that this is the best Iceland team seen so far, with “team” being the highlighted word. They may not have the class of the top teams, or a world-class match-winner, but they do have a solid work ethic, and a game-plan that revolves around getting as many throw-ins as possible around their opponent’s penalty box. It’s a game-plan that has seen them go unbeaten so far in Euro 2016, scoring in each game. France also haven’t played anyone better than Iceland so far and, though they’ll be shaking in their boots, they have conceded goals to Romania and the Republic of Ireland. France should have too much speed and class for the Icelanders, and qualify, but the 6/4 for both teams to score again looks on the generous side.
Both teams to score @ 6/4 (William Hill)