Daily Fantasy Sports: Betting On MLB
Published on 08/12/17
There is quite a huge interest in DFS MLB. This has been put down to the fact that there is simply no other DFS quite like baseball. To help you get to grips with DFS MLB, we’ve put together a betting guide.
To start, you’re going to have to do your research. Find out the odds along with the percentage of bets that are placed on the spread, total and money line of every game. These are well worth seeking out simply because sportsbooks and bettors obviously have a financial interest in making the correct call. Look for the reverse line movement. This is when the percentage of bets placed on a specific outcome, is much higher than the amount of bets placed on the same outcome. If, for instance, 70% of bets are placed on the Red Sox overcoming the Blue Jays, it means just 30% are backing the Blue Jays.
If you look at the money line closely, however, you may notice that just 40% of the total amount of money placed is on the Red Sox, meaning 60% of the money is hoping for a Blue Jays victory. The sports book will end up reacting to this by making the line more friendly towards the Blue Jays. Identifying this movement will help you spot situations where underdog players may come in useful.
Keep Your Eyes On The Weather
Research for DFS MLB can get rather detailed, and you’ll even have to look into the weather. Consider the fact that sportsbooks factor weather into their odds, so you’ll need to do it too. If you notice a particular venue has strong winds, blowing towards centre field, then the total for the game is likely to be a lot higher. If that’s the case, then you can gain an advantage by selecting two strong pitchers which could cause DFS players to avoid taking hitters in the game.
A thorough look at the weather is also useful for avoiding zero scores. If a game is rained off and you have players in your lineup from that game, you won’t get any points. A keen eye on the weather will ensure that doesn’t happen to you.
Once you’re done with the weather, you can take a look at the lineup. Pitchers are the most consistent points scorers so choose wisely. One negative score amongst your pitchers is very hard to overcome, irrespective of how well your batters do. With DraftKings, it’s worth bearing in mind that the emphasis is firmly on pitchers who achieve strikeouts. Whilst these players cost more, it’s worth paying extra.
A good rule of thumb is to look for pitchers who strikeout 20% or more of the batters they face. Once you’ve eliminated those with a lower strikeout percentage, look at the pitcher’s opponents. Some teams such as the Houston Astros, tend to strikeout more. So if luck is on your side, using a pitcher that’s facing a high strikeout team could net you plenty of points.
There is a lot of variance in baseball, so whilst the odds may suggest a high scoring game between the Rangers and the Angels, the reality may be very different. Although it doesn’t happen a great deal, the odds can sometimes be wrong, and if they are, you need to take advantage of it. From time to time, you’ll be able to see whether a game has been under or overrated by the sportsbook, although this is mostly a gut feeling, and although it’s not advisable to go on your gut alone, occasionally it’s the best judge.
For those who prefer to take the statistical approach, then there are some stats to look out for when making your selection. ISO, which stands for isolated power, is a good example. Combine the ISO with a player’s splits on any day of your choosing. If a specific batter is going up against a pitcher of your choice, would you prefer it to be a right-handed pitcher who the batter has a .248 ISO against? Or would it be better if it was a left-handed pitcher who the batter has a .343 ISO against? Whilst it may be a labour intensive process, studying the stats could result in you gaining an advantage.