Criterion Stakes 2019 Analysis [Plus Free Tip]
The 2019 Criterion Stakes (Saturday 29 June, 3.15) will be the 32nd edition of this Group 3 Race that takes place over 7-furlongs on the July Course at Newmarket. Cadeaux Genereux and Zilzal are the most notable winners of the race, whilst recent winners have included Home Of The Brave and Sir Dancelot.
Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the 2019 Criterion Stakes.
Criterion Stakes 10-Year-Trends
The draw has no particular bias, with two horses winning from the highest-numbered stall and several winning from middle-draws. But it’s worth noting that three of the last eight winners have won from stall-one including the last two. Horses aged three, four, five, and six have won in the last decade, whilst Suggestive won as an 8-year-old in 2006.
Winning form in the same season hasn’t been a big pointer to success, with only four of the last 10 winners having already won that season, and just two having won their previous race. Winners had all run between one and four times that season. Only one winner carried a penalty to success.
The Hannon stable has had three winners in the last decade and is the only winning stable in that time to have a runner this year. The last seven winners have generally been returned at no bigger than 6/1, with the preceding three going off at 8/1, 9/1, and 25/1.
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Criterion Stakes 2019 Runner-By-Runner Guide
The drying ground is in favour of this high-class seven-year-old and he won’t mind if firm is in the going description by race time. The going was good-to-firm when he won the July Cup over six-furlongs as a four-year-old, and he’s won Group 2 races over today’s course and distance since then. Looked to have retained his ability on his only run this season and the only negative is the 5lb penalty he must carry, but Premio Loco managed to do it in 2010.
Won the 2016 edition of this race on soft ground and he was also third in 2017, which is the year this nine-year-old won his last race. However, he’s looked regressive in beating a total of just four horses in his last four starts, including when a well-beaten last behind Limato here last season.
Frankie Dettori is an interesting first-time jockey booking for this Mark Johnston four-year-old who won a Group 2 over six-furlongs on this course as a two-year-old. He’s better at this distance now, but his last two wins have come in handicaps, and he needs to prove he can handle group-class horses again now. However, Newmarket may be the place he does it.
A four-year-old trained by Charlie Appleby that won a Group 3 in France over a mile last year, but the runner-up that day has been beaten further in three runs since. He ran okay in a handicap on his seasonal debut and is the early-priced favourite on the back of splitting Dream Of Dreams and The Tin Man over six-furlongs at Windsor. That run suggests he’s improving, but it’s also possible he’s flattered by his proximity to the winner there, who probably ran to a much higher-level when runner-up in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Third in this race last year but he should struggle to beat Cardsharp on a form-line involving the runner-up So Beloved. However, he finished in front of that horse on the same terms on his first run of the season. He has a few pounds to find on ratings, and he shouldn’t be winning this.
Lowest-rated of the eight runners and he’s been well-beaten by both Cardsharp and Limato in recent races. He would be a shock winner, but it will be interesting to see if he can set a strong pace that could suit David O’Meara’s other runner Suedois.
Former Grade 1 winner abroad but has won just two of his 23 races for David O’Meara. He must have a chance today though, as he is 5lb better off with Limato than when finishing second to him in the 2016 July Cup. Surprisingly, he hasn’t run at Newmarket since then, so he could raise his game providing he has a strong pace to run at in the closing stages.
Has been well-placed to win four Listed Races in the last two seasons by trainer Richard Hannon but ran below expectations when fourth in the 2018 Criterion Stakes. He also didn’t run up to his best on his only other run on the July Course, so others are preferred.
Criterion Stakes 2019 Verdict
Salateen and Larchmont Lad shouldn’t be winning this on ratings, whilst Tabarrak has yet to produce his best form on the July Stakes, and age may have caught up with Breton Rock.
At seven and eight, Limato and Suedois are also older than any winner in the last decade. But it’s interesting that the pair finished first and second in the July Cup here in 2016, and victory for either wouldn’t come as a major shock.
The form of Glorious Journey can be read two-ways, and he’ll be a big danger if he runs as well as he did last time, but he may have been flattered. That leaves us with Cardsharp, who needs to prove he’s up to Group Class again after winning handicaps off big-weights, but it’s worth noting that he beat the 2018 July Cup winner here as a two-year-old. The booking of Frankie Dettori also suggests that a big run is expected.
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Cardsharp (Each-Way) @ 9.00 Bet365 or 8.00 BetVictor, WilliamHill
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