Chester Cup 10-Year-Trends
Published on 10/05/17
The Chester Cup (Wednesday 10 May, 3.35) is a prestigious class-2 handicap worth nearly £74,000 to he winner. It started life as the Tradesmen’s Plate in 1824, before becoming known as the Chester Cup 60-years-later.
Therefore, we thought we’d have a look at some of the biggest trends from the last decade.
6 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in stall-6 or lower, however the other four winners have been drawn in stalls 11, 11, 13 and 16, despite Chester not really playing to the strengths of horses drawn wide in double-figure fields. A tough one to dismiss any horse completely on the grounds of the draw, but worth bearing in mind that the majority have still come from stalls 1 to 6.
The last 10 winners have come from a very small band of ratings, with winners having been rated between 92 and 99, with four rated 93. If that statistic is repeated this year, it suggests that the top 5 horses in the race will struggle off their marks of 100 or above. That includes last year’s runner-up Nakeeta, previous winner Suegioo, Fun Mac, Watersmeet and First Mohican.
With the last 10 winners rated within 8lb of one another, it’s no surprise that there is only 10lb between the lowest weight carried and the highest weight carried in the same period – with the weight-carried ranging from 8-9 to 9-4. Again, if that’s to be repeated, then we can also rule-out the next two horses in the list, Montaly and Magic Circle.
Last Time Out Winners
Only one winner in the last 10-years had won last time out, and that horse was Trip To Paris, who went on to win the Ascot Gold Cup, despite being rated only 92 when winning this. That means it could be wise to rule-out Blakeney Point, though I do that with trepidation as he is an improving 4-year-old who has bottom-weight and looks well-drawn in stall-1.
Trainers Richard Fahey and Donald McCain have both trained two winners in the last 10-years and, whilst neither have been fortunate with the draw, they were for responsible for one winner each that was drawn in double-figures. Ian Williams, who trained the winner in 2008, has also fared poorly with the draw but again is responsible for one of the higher-drawn recent winners.
Jamie Spencer and Jim Crowley have both ridden two winners in the last 10 years, though both of them are on horses that are outside the ratings and weights parameters of previous winners. Meanwhile, previous winners Ryan Moore and Paul Hanagan are on horses within the ideal parameters, but both of the have double-figure draws.
Chester Cup Summary
No horse is sticking out like a sore thumb this year, with the only horse in the ideal ratings and weights band who is drawn in stalls 1 to 6 is Yorkidding, who is drawn in stall-3. He’s also ran reasonably here on his two course starts, and is 1lb better off with possible favourite Sea of Heaven who looks poorly drawn in stall-14. Blakeney Point is feared most from stall-1, despite having won last time out.