Some of you may be fed-up of me drumming on about Leicester week-in week-out, but I simply can’t wait to back them every time they play at the moment – because they continually look over-priced! On Boxing Day they head to Liverpool in their latest bid to defy the odds, and we’ve got a preview of that match as well as Stoke vs Manchester United, Southampton vs Arsenal, and Newcastle vs Everton.
Liverpool vs Leicester (Saturday 3.00pm)
Forget we’re talking about Leicester for a moment, and ask yourself what odds you’d price a team up at that are undefeated in their Premier League travels this season, and have won 5 of their last away games, scoring 2 or 3 goals in each of those games. 6/4? 7/4 because they’re playing a perceived better team in Liverpool? Well the bookies have them priced-up at 3/1 – which yours truly just doesn’t understand. It’s not like Liverpool are exactly ripping-up trees; in fact they’ve only won 1 of their last 4 home games. That was a 1-0 defeat of Swansea, whilst home draws against Southampton and Villa and a defeat by Crystal Palace hardly suggest they should be evens. Liverpool might win – but, for me, it’s come on Leicester for the Christmas money!
Leicester @ 3/1 (Betfred, Betvictor, Coral)
Stoke vs Manchester United (3pm Saturday)
United have won just once in their last 4 visits to Stoke, with 2 draws and a Stoke victory being the other 3 results. United’s last 4 away games also show an identical pattern, as do Stoke’s last 4 home games. It’s 11/5 the draw – and that just smacks of value.
Draw @ 11/5 (Bet365, Betfred, Stan James)
Newcastle vs Everton (Saturday 5.30pm)
Past results suggest this could easily go either way but, as Newcastle have drawn 2 of their last 4 home games, and Everton have drawn their last 3 away games, the draw again looks the value bet.
Draw @ 13/5 (BetVictor, 888)
Southampton vs Arsenal (Saturday 7.45pm)
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger knows that his side will never have a better chance to win the Premier League with the likes of Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea all looking as poor as they’ve done in a long time. They don’t actually have a very good record in this fixture though, not won any of the last 3, but Southampton do look there for the taking after a 3 defeats and a draw against Villa in their last 4 home games.
Arsenal @ 23/20 (Betvictor, Betfred)