If the bookies have the betting right for the first wave of festive-period football, then there won’t be much happening at the top of the Premier League this weekend with Liverpool at 1/3, Arsenal 4/11, Chelsea 2/5, Manchester City 1/3 and Manchester United at 1/4 to win their respective matches. Even still, the 5-timer won’t make much appeal apart from to those looking to buy money – so we’re opting for 3 value selection instead.
Arsenal vs West Brom (Monday 3.00)
Arsenal will be looking to win this fixture for the sixth straight season and, with West Brom having already lost to Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool this season, it’s hard to argue a case for anything other than an Arsenal victory. Arsenal have also won four of those last five renewals to nil, and you could argue the case for backing that result at 13/10. However, Arsenal have failed to keep a clean-sheet in their last 12 games in all competitions, and West Brom have scored in 10 of their last 13 games – making the 21//10 about an Arsenal win and both teams to score more appealing.
Arsenal to win and both teams to score @ 21/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Burnley vs Middlesbrough (Monday 3.00)
Only Championship form to go one here, with 2 of the last 3 renewals ending in draws, whilst it was Middlesbrough who won the other. However, I’m not sure that Burnley deserve to be the underdogs having won 4 of their last 6 home games, losing the other 2 to Arsenal and Chelsea. Meanwhile, Middlesbrough have compiled an amazing away record so far this season, losing 2, drawing 5 and winning once and that, combined with their recent record here, suggests a draw has to be massive value at 11/5
Draw @ 11/5 (Paddy Power, Betbright)
Swansea vs West Ham (Monday 3.00)
The last 3 renewals have finished 0-0, 1-1 and 0-0, though it’s hard to imagine that these two teams will produce a similar results this year. 11 of the last 13 Swansea matches have produced more than 2.5 goals, as have 4 of the last 10 West Ham matches – and there could be plenty of goals if that’s anything to go off. You can have 4/5 that happens again but, with 7 of the last 13 Swansea matches, and 4 of the last 7 West Ham matches, producing more than 3.5 goals – that looks an even better value punt at 21/10.
More Than 3.5 goals @ 21/10 (Betvictor, William Hill)
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