16 matches in and Leicester are down to 20/1 to win the Premier League, and yet their match with Everton is priced-up as though the bookies are convinced that it will be this week that Leicester’s wheels fall off. Read our preview of that match, and also the matches between Southampton and Spurs, Newcastle vs Villa, and Arsenal vs Manchester City.
Everton vs Leicester (Saturday 3.00pm)
Whether Leicester’s Premier League aspirations are just a pipedream or not, the betting for this match looks to be all wrong for so many reasons. We may only have last year’s two matches as a sample form guide, but both matches ended 2-2, and Leicester weren’t the side they are now. Meanwhile, Everton’s home form is okay, but two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last 5 home matches doesn’t make them 11/10 shots; especially when you also consider that Leicester have won 4 and drawn one of their last 5 away games, and haven’t lost away in the Premier League this season. Leicester are tempting at 29/11, but you can lay Everton at 2.14 on Betfair and have the draw on your side, too. Meanwhile, with both team producing entertaining matches, it might be worth backing more than 3.5 goals at 17/1.
Lay Everton @ 2.14 Betfair Exchange
Back more than 3.5 goals @ 17/10 Bet Victor
Southampton vs Spurs (Saturday 3.00pm)
The recent 3 renewals have seen Spurs win two and draw one, but their recent run of away form includes 3 draws in their last 4 matches. Southampton are also struggling a bit at home with one win, one defeat and two draws in their last four games. It’s 12/5 for a draw – and it looks the value.
Draw @ 12/5 (Bet365, BetFred)
Newcastle vs Villa (Saturday 5.30pm)
Just like last year, Newcastle have hit top form after a slow start with consecutive wins over Liverpool and Spurs. If they don’t go into this match over confident then they really should be able to brush aside struggling Villa who have lost 4 of their last 5 away games. Newcastle also have a great record in this fixture with 4 wins in the last 5 renewals – and slight odds-against looks a fair price.
Newcastle @ 21/20 (365, BetFred, William Hill)
Arsenal vs Man City (Monday 8.00pm)
Both teams will be desperate to win this but, as 4 of the last 6 renewals have ended in draws, that’s a compelling reason to thing 45/17 is a great price for another draw.
Draw @ 45/17 (Marathon Bet)