Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes Trends [Plus FREE Tip]
Published on 01/08/19
The Group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes is run over a mile and is one of the highlights on the fourth day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival. It is restricted to 3-year-olds and the last two winners have been Beat The Bank and Regal Reality, who have both since registered successes at a higher level.
Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the Bonham Thoroughbred Stakes 2019.
Bonham Thoroughbred Stakes 10-Year-Trends
Winners in the last decade have won from stalls seven and nine but eight winners have been drawn between stalls one and four. Four winners won their previous race, two finished second, two sixth, and two finished ninth or worse.
Winners had run between 22 and 322 days before their success in the race, with winners returned at odds of between 5/6 and 10/1. John Gosden is the only trainer with a runner this year that has won the race in the last 10 years, but Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore have both ridden two winners in that period.
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Bonhams Thoroughbred Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019
Art Du Val
Won his first race as a 2-year-old before being beaten by the re-opposing Duke Of Hazzard on his final start as a juvenile. He’s still officially rated 7lb lower than that rival, despite winning both his races this season, but must overcome a wide draw in stall-11.
Unraced at two but won her first two races over seven furlongs before finding the drop to six furlongs against her. Looked much better stepped up to a mile when winning the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot but that was off a mark of just 92. Rated 101 now but this Group 3 off level weights is a completely different test.
Duke Of Hazzard
Won two races at two, including at this meeting last year, and was highly tried on his first few starts at three. Won when having his sights lowered to Listed race company last time but not sure that form deserved a 6lb rise in the ratings. More exposed than most of his rivals after 13 runs but he has an obvious chance, especially if first-time blinkers bring about some improvement.
Looked very promising when beating Space Blues on his second start but has struggled over 10 furlongs behind some useful rivals on last two starts. Could appreciate dropping back to a mile but his mark of 100 means he has 11lb to find with the top-rated rival.
I Could Do Better
Non-runner when entered for a Listed race on Sunday at Pontefract so, as he now runs in this Group 3, his new trainer Ian Williams must think he’s much better than his mark of 95. He has a nice draw in stall-4 and could be galvanised by the combination of first-time cheekpieces and the first-time booking of Silvestre De Sousa.
Won his first three races in his native country but has been beaten in three runs in Meydan since. That suggests, despite the booking of Danny Tudhope, he’ll struggle to get competitive off his current mark.
His trainer will be hoping for heavy rain, as his best three performances have all come on soft ground when winning twice and finishing third to Sangarius at Royal Ascot. Connections had hoped he would be a Derby horse, but they now try him over a mile after he looked weak at the finish over 10-furlongs last time.
Second in the Craven Stakes on seasonal debut but nowhere near as good in the 2,000 Guineas or at Royal Ascot. He also finished 2½ lengths behind Duke Of Hazzard last time and there’s no obvious reason why he should turn that form around.
Aidan O’Brien has never won this race before and this son of Frankel hasn’t proved a star so far. Well beaten behind Sangarius at Royal Ascot and needs to improve on his second in a Listed Race last time back over a mile.
Didn’t make much impact in three runs over 10-furlongs this season but ran with great credit when trying to give Biometric 10lb at Royal Ascot over a mile. However, he finished well behind Duke Of Hazzard last time over today’s trip and the same fate could await him.
Disqualified after winning his first race at Royal Ascot but has since won both his next two races at Newcastle over 7-furlongs. The form of those wins means he is only rated 93 but he is completely unexposed, and connections fit first-time blinkers as he steps up to a mile for the first time.
Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes Verdict 2019
A draw between stalls one and four has been a plus in recent editions of the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes but Irish Trilogy and Old Glory don’t make much appeal. Fifth Position and I Could Do Better are less exposed, but they have 11lb and 18lb to find, respectively.
Art Du Val has the widest draw of all, whilst Momkin in stall 10 has already been well-beaten by the top-rated horse Duke Of Hazzard, as has Turgenev, whilst Turjoman is unbeaten but has a lot to find from stall-9. It’s also asking a lot of Biometric to make this step up to Group 3 level after winning a handicap off a mark of 92 last time.
Several form-lines suggest Duke Of Hazzard will take a lot of beating, especially as he won at the Qatar Goodwood Festival last season, and he looks a solid each-way bet if stall-six isn’t an inconvenience.
However, I think the form of King Ottakar’s third behind Sangarius last time is the strongest form on offer. He travelled smoothly into that race from a tough draw and his finishing effort just faded inside the final furlong. That suggests a return to a mile could see him in an even better light and he looks the value bet.
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King Ottokar (Each-Way) @ 11.00 Paddy Power
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