Netherlands vs Poland looks the pick of Friday night’s UEFA Nations League action (September 4). The Netherlands are strongly fancied to come out on top of Group A1 and we’re also hoping they’ll put in an A1 performance against Poland.
The best odds for the match are Netherlands 9/20 (1.45), draw 16/5 (4.20), and Poland 7/1 (8.00), and the Netherlands looks sure to find their way into many doubles, trebles, and accumulators. But our Netherlands vs Poland tip is the Netherlands to win to nil at odds-against.
The main reason for thinking that Poland might fail to breach the Netherlands’ defence is the absence of this season’s most prolific striker Robert Lewandowski. He doesn’t score of all of Poland’s goals, but what he does do is use his reputation to draw defenders away from the space some of his fellow strikers create. Without Lewandowski on the pitch, Poland may not have the sort of player that can get Virgil Van Dijk and his defensive colleagues out of their comfort zone.
The Netherlands have also kept plenty of clean sheets at home in recent times. Notable results include a 3-0 win over Germany and a 2-0 win over France, while a 4-0 victory over Belarus and a 5-0 win over Estonia means the Netherlands have kept four clean sheets in their last six home games.
Admittedly, Poland have scored in their last four games, but those were only against Slovenia, Israel, North Macedonia, and Latvia, and the Netherlands represent a big step-up in class. Those results also followed a run of four games in which Poland failed to score in three of those.
With just one team from the group heading to the finals, the Netherlands will be looking to start the group well, and are fancied to show their class in the absence of Poland’s best player by winning to nil.
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