Kentucky Oaks Prediction [04/09/2020] | Betting Gods
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Kentucky Oaks Prediction [04/09/2020] <

Kentucky Oaks Prediction [04/09/2020]

Prediction

Our Tip for 22:45 Churchill Downs

Speech

1pt Win @ 7.00 BetVictor, Betfred

Analysis

The Kentucky Oaks is being billed as the epic showdown between two brilliant 3-year-old fillies and if it does come down to Swiss Skydiver and Gamine battling through the stretch for supremacy, all the horse players who love to play favorites will join hands and rejoice as they cash their $2.10 mutual. We’re taking a bit of a contrarian’s approach for the Oaks and going with Speech to post a mild upset.

Swiss Skydiver has the most impressive resume of all the runners heading to post on Friday evening. She’s won 5 of 9 starts and $952,000 including wins in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, Fantasy Stakes, Santa Anita Oaks and most recently the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga. Her most impressive race to date may have been a second place finish to Art Collector in the Blue Grass Stakes. There was no reason for her to take on males at this level but her connections had the confidence that she’d run her race and run she did. Beating home 11 of the best 3-year-old colts in training. Swiss Skydiver has danced just about every dance, likes to run on the engine and drew the rail which will undoubtably force the hand of her jockey, Tyler Gaffalione to send her to the lead.

Gamine could be any kind. Gamine cost $1.8 Million USD and has never been beaten to the finish line. Her only blemish to date was a minor medication infraction which resulted in a disqualification. Since that start she’s won two grade 1 races by 18 ¾ lengths and 7 lengths with MONSTEROUS speed figures. She can easily win here and at even money, nobody would bat an eye. She also likes to run her races on the front end which makes for an interesting showdown with Swiss Skydiver.

Speech has a strong record of her own. She’s won 3 of 7 starts and has finished second three times as well. She finished third on debut but has never been off the board. While Speech has finished behind both Swiss Skydiver and Gamine, her loss to Gamine was close. She lost by a head before being placed first due to Gamine’s medication infraction. Her loss to Swiss Skydiver wasn’t as close, losing by 4 lengths but the race dynamics that day didn’t work in her favor. Swiss Skydiver had a relatively easy lead and Speech didn’t have enough pace to run her down. In Speech’s most recent start in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland, she won by 3 lengths in impressive fashion. Her final incremental split was faster than anyone else has run at the 1 1/16th distance and although Friday’s race is run at 1 1/8th miles, it tells us that she’s looking to run further. In the event the two favorites – both speed types – both go to the lead and throw it down from the start, we think Speech will benefit and has a great chance to run the both down. Her speed figures are right there with Swiss Skydiver and if Gamine shows distance limitations (as she’s untested at the 1 1/8th distance) we look to find Speech in the winner’s circle when the dust settles.



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