Saratoga’s Grade 1 Forego Stakes is one of the most evenly matched Grade 1 races you’ll ever find. Handicapping it took me over an hour and gave me a headache.
An eleven horse field assembles with top speed figures for all competitors ranging from 98 to 107. That nine point gap in speed figures basically encompasses every horse in the race and that’s an amazing statistic. It’s rare to find a race that close. Since the competitors are so closely matched when it comes to speed figures, I’m looking at other deciding factors in order to find value.
Our selection, Fortin Hill, is 1 for 1 at the 7 furlong distance. Irad Ortiz is our rider and he’s one of the best there is and is also 3 for 3 since securing the mount on this one. Fortin Hill is the most lightly raced runners in the field and breaks from the outside. He was a $575,000 purchase and won his first two starts before running second off nearly a year layoff at Gulfstream Park.
A few months later, he returned at Belmont Park and ran a hole-in-the-wind finishing 7 furlongs in 120.44. Jockey Irad Ortiz had the mount on a more accomplished Firenze Fire who has won close to $2,000,000 in his career and owns the fields top speed figure of 107.
The fact that Ortiz opted for the mount on Fortin Hill tells me there’s more to this one coming second off a layoff. His incremental splits show that he ran the fastest closing split of anyone in the field for a recent 7 furlong race of a blazing 12.02.
Fortin Hill is our selection for a 2pt win wager.
28/09/2020 | Football - Premier League
Both Teams To Score (Yes)
1pt Win @ 1.68 Unibet, Betway
27/09/2020 | Football - Premier League
Over 2.5 Goals
1pt Win @ 2.05 BetVictor, BoyleSports
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