15:00 Ayr Prediction [17/09/2020] | Betting Gods
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15:00 Ayr Prediction [17/09/2020] <

15:00 Ayr Prediction [17/09/2020]

Prediction

Our Tip for 15:00 Ayr

Arch Moon

1pt Win @ 10.00 Bet365, William Hill

Analysis

Ayr 3.00 Tip Thursday 17 September

The Dream Weddings At Western House Hotel Handicap (For the Kilkerran Cup) may be a bit of mouthful, but this class 2 handicap over 10-furlongs at Ayr provides a good betting opportunity.

Horses aged three and four have dominated the last six editions, so I’m happy to leave the older horses Nicholas T, Redarna, Glasses Up, and Just Hiss out of the calculations.

Three of the remaining eight runners are aged four. Arctic Sound is now on a 5lb lower mark than his last win nine runs ago, but that came over 7-furlongs in 2018. He also looked a non-stayer on his one previous try at this trip. Dark Lochnagar is on an even longer losing run of 12, yet he’s still 3lb higher than when recording that class 4 victory.

Dubai Icon is the most interesting of the 4-year-olds, as trainer Saeed Bin Suroor often targets this meeting. But he would be defying a substantially longer break than any previous winner, as he’s not run since February.

Glasvegas is the lowest rated runner on a mark of 80, but it’s worth pointing out he was rated 98 after two wins as a 2-year-old over 5 and 6 furlongs. He’s shown nothing in five races at up to a mile this season and needs 10-furlongs to rekindle his enthusiasm.

First Impression won on his seasonal debut off 80 in a class 4 but has flopped off higher marks in class 3s. The win of Spirit Dancer came in a class 5 maiden but there’s an argument that he’s well-handicapped on a mark of 80 after beating a 78-rated horse over 3-lengths there. Only time will tell if he is on a good mark, but the negative is he’s much less experienced than previous winners of this race.

Morisco and Arch Moon ran against each other at this meeting last year in a class 4 novice, with Morisco beating Arch Moon into second by over a length when conceding 3lb. Morisco proved he stays by winning over 10-furlongs off a mark of 93 on his seasonal debut and hasn’t been disgraced in two runs off his current mark of 99.

Arch Moon is our tip. He now finds himself 10lb better off with Morisco, despite also winning on his seasonal debut, while there are excuses for his subsequent defeats. He’s bred to relish 10-furlongs and trainer Jim Goldie has enjoyed plenty of success at this meeting.



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