Understanding Stats & Betting Trends
An awareness of statistics and betting trends can be used to help reduce your losses, increase your depth of knowledge, and allow you to place your bets more effectively to help maximise winnings. But what are they and how can I learn to use them to my advantage?
Statistics are the historical data about an event taking place and can be converted into ‘odds’ or the likelihood of something happening again. For example: How many times have Leeds United scored away from home? Using statistical information allows you to help make yourself more informed about the likelihood of an event taking or not taking place. This information can then be used to create a system that lets you track and quantify the ‘big picture’ of the events or games and make sure that your own spending is managed to minimise loss and bet with higher efficiency.
Trends are a little more difficult to quantify and are best thought of as patterns in the market or behaviour for a team or event. Being able to spot and take advantage of trends before anyone else is key in providing you with an ‘edge’ and is best thought of as ‘knowledge’ you can use to gather more information about statistics or spot behaviour or opportunities. For example: You can see that there is a huge increase in online gambling around an event – with such a wealth of new punters coming in, you can then start considering ways of learning more about that sector and making more effective bets to maximise your income.
Using both these tools can help you be as informed as possible when placing a punt and, if deployed correctly, can help you place a safer and more lucrative bet.
What Is An Example Of Using Stats And Trends?
You and your friend are in the pub and decide to place a bet on a match over your laptop. Your friend picks a match he likes the look of and places his stake at what he believes to be good odds.
However, you decide to apply a bit of knowledge and consider what you know about stats and trends. You know that, on average, you bet against 5/1 odds and that – from looking at your historic winning rate you win on average forty percent of the time. You know that, on average, for every hundred bets you place, you will win forty times. This generates forty ‘units’ of profit and sixty ‘units’ of loss. So, if you take a £5 stake against your prediction you will generate on average £1,000 on your successes against £300 of losses. If you place a hundred bets across two months, this will generate a total confirmed loss of £1800 per year against a projected win of £6000.
Knowing this fits within your plan, you start checking out the odds of the teams and spot good odds on Man City against Leeds. Using your knowledge of trends, you know that live-play punting is growing in popularity and allows you to place a bet after the event takes place – giving you more flexibility to modify your stake. As you’re a member of a number of message boards online and regularly follow sporting news, you know that Leeds’ form has been spotty recently and their defence is unreliable. Both are backed up by statistical evidence from when they have scored. You can also see that Man City have been starting strong when opening with two strikers that work very well together. Bearing this in mind, you decide to hold off until the match begins.
The event then takes place and you see Man City are starting strong. You place your bet with live play at low odds and, sure enough, within twenty minutes, Man City have rattled through and scored. The game concludes and you end up taking your winnings, then make a note of these statistics and add your earnings to the pot.
What Are The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Stats And Trends?
Build your knowledge and connections: Making a commitment to understanding trends and statistics is often intimidating. However, it’s worth remembering that there are many other punters out there in the same boat that will be able to place exactly the same bets as you and will be more than happy to pool resources and information.
Ultimately fallible: It’s important to know that while systems and processes can work for you and help cultivate your edge, there is not, nor will there ever be, a process that gives you 100 per cent certainty every time you place a stake. Due to the huge number of variables at play, every bet is and should be treated as unique.
Number of methodologies: There are a wealth of processes and systems that already exist to help you break down statistics in meaningful ways. Any of these can be trialled on paper to help you build experience and road test them before placing any money down.
What Should I Know?
Gamble safe: If you’re gambling regularly it’s crucial that you budget accordingly. This allows you to make sure that you don’t overspend but also allows your money to work for you as a ‘pot’ that can be drawn into. If you check your statistics before placing any stake, you can safely make sure that your losses can be shouldered and your potential wins can be maximised.
Online resources: There are a multitude of resources available for you on the internet to make use of – so many in fact that it can be intimidating to first dip your toe in the water and decide which ones you should use. A good rule of thumb in punting (and in life) is to always aim to be learning more and improving. Building your knowledge of trends will help you develop a ‘gut’ instinct and in depth knowledge of the sector. Building your understanding of statistics will help you reinforce that instinct with evidence.
Statistics you should be looking out for: One of the best things you can do is start to track your own statistics as well as those around the events that you’re punting on. What is your own win/lose rate? How much you can afford to lose? How much you expect to win against what you did win?
Trends you should be looking out for: When it comes to any events, keep an eye out for the form of those taking part in the event? Where do they historically do well? What is their track record for success? Also, keep an eye out for trends in the sector at large. Are there new methods of punting available? Is there new technology that is affecting how stakes are being laid down? Are there new methodologies that people are using that are relevant to me?