Ballyroan Stakes Trends & Preview [Free Tip Inside]
Ballyroan Stakes Trends & Preview [Free Tip Inside]

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Ballyroan Stakes Trends & Preview [Free Tip Inside]

Posted August 7, 2019 | By Tim @ Betting Gods

The Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes (Thursday 8 August, 6.55pm) is the highlight on the card of Leopardstown Racecourse’s August Bulmers Live Meeting, after which racegoers can be taken back to the 70s by The Bay City Rollers.

The race is open to horses aged three and older and is run over 12 furlongs. It was upgraded to a Group 3 in 2007, since when it has been won by the likes of Mores Wells and Profound Beauty.

Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the Ballyroan Stakes 2019.

Ballyroan Stakes 10-Year-Trends

The last 10 editions of the Ballyroan Stakes have been won by four 4-year-olds, three 3-year-olds, two 5-year-olds, and one 6-year-old. Single-figure fields have occurred in each of those races, but no winner has won from stall-one.

Eight of the last 10 winners had won their previous race, with nine of those winners running between 13 and 39 days prior to their Ballyroan Stakes victory.

Dermot Weld has trained five of the last 10 winners, and Aidan O’Brien four of the last five. The other winner was trained by Jim Bolger.

Seven of the last 10 winners were returned at odds of 9/4 or shorter, with none of the last 10 winners returned at bigger than 6/1.

Ballyroan Stakes Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019

Broad Street

Any horse that Dermot Weld runs in the Ballyroan Stakes has to be taken seriously and this 4-year-old son of Sea The Stars has won both of his races. The bare form of his two wins suggests he has something to find, but the patience his connections have shown suggests he’s capable of taking higher rank as he gains experience. He’s also the only one of this year’s sextet that won his last race.

Giuseppe Garibaldi

Won a Listed Race as a 2-year-old when trained by Aidan O’Brien but, after an inauspicious spell in Doha for a local trainer, he has been placed in the care of John Oxx on his return to Ireland. He’s entitled to take a step forward after his first start for his new stable, but the form of that run was made to look even worse when the second failed to take advantage of an easy opportunity next time. Even on his best form, he’ll struggle to beat Latrobe on a collateral form-line involving a horse called Rostropovich.

Latrobe

Last year’s Irish Derby winner (when he beat Rostropovich) has failed to win in seven runs since that Classic triumph, but his mark of 112 sets a high standard for his opposition to aspire to. There’s also a strong suspicion he’s best at 12 furlongs, a distance he’s two wins from three runs over, with his loss at that distance coming in a Group 1 in Japan. He’s looked short of speed in four runs over 10 furlongs and short of stamina in two runs over 14 furlongs, so this test should prove ideal.

Massif Central

A decent money-spinner for his connections, as he often hits the frame, but all his form on turf suggests his mark of 98 is about right. His two wins have also both come on the all-weather at Dundalk and, as usual at this level, he should find at least a couple too good for him.

Blenheim Palace

Must overcome the stat that none of the last 10 winners have been berthed in stall-one, but that probably hasn’t stopped many Aidan O’Brien trained horses from winning. What might stop him is the fact his form falls some way short of one or two of his rivals. However, having been outpaced in a couple of his recent races inside the final furlong, he could benefit from stepping up to 12 furlongs for the first time, and he receives a handy 10lb from the 4-year-olds.

Guaranteed

Finished fifth on his last start in the Irish Derby but it’s hard to gauge the quality of that form with this year’s middle-distance 3-year-olds tending to get beaten by their elders. He also looked to run out of stamina in the final furlong that day, whilst the majority of his form before that race also doesn’t look strong enough to win this.

Ballyroan Stakes Verdict 2019

Massif Central and Giuseppe Garibaldi have it all to do on ratings and even their best performances leave them with something to find if the main protagonists run to form.

The only three trainers to win the Ballyroan Stakes in the last decade all have runners, but it’s hard to be enthusiastic about the 3-year-olds. Both Guaranteed and Blenheim Palace are some way down the pecking order in this year’s classic generation of middle-distance performers, which look a disappointing bunch.

That suggests there will be plenty of punters willing to take a chance on the lightly-raced Broad Street, whose trainer Dermot Weld has won five of the last 10 editions of the Ballyroan Stakes.

However, he’ll have to be special to beat Latrobe, who returns to 12-furlongs, a distance he has won both his previous starts over in Ireland. Last year’s Irish Derby winner also face a weaker field than the ones he’s competed against so far this year.

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Latrobe @ 1.91 William Hill
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