The ATP Buenos Aires, or Abierto de Buenos Aires as it also known, is an ATP World Tour 250 Series event played on the clay courts of the Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis Club.
The event was first held in 1956, and it has mainly been dominated by either Argentinean or Spanish players, though it is Spain that has produced 7 of the last 8 winners, with 7 straight Spanish wins stopped only by Dominic Thiem’s win last year. Spain have also been responsible for 3 of the last 7 runner-ups.
Rafa Nadal has only contributed one of the those recent wins though, with his win in 2015 stopping David Ferrer adding to his 2012-2014 hat-trick. Meanwhile, the other player who catches the eye is Nicolas Almagro who won here in 2011 before going on to finish runner-up in 2012 and 2016.
However, with neither Thiem or Nadal in the field this year, the market is headed by Kei Nishikori – and, as he’s won the ATP Memphis for the last four years which is also being held this week, the Japanese player looks to be having an earlier than usual look at clay with a possible French Open challenge in mind for later in the season.
Number-One Seed Nishikori should have no problem reaching the quarter-finals, where his most likely opponent is Number-6 Seed Sousa who won their only previous meeting. However, that’s misleading as Nishikori had to retire in the first set of that match – and the world number-5 should prove far too strong for the world number-41.
The second-quarter should be easy picking for David Ferrer, who holds an 11-0 lead against likely quart-final opponent Fognini. However, he’s not been in great from recently and, even if does reach the semi-finals – Nishikori should prove too strong for him having won 7 of their last 8 head-to-heads and their last 2 meetings on clay.
The bottom-half of the draw looks a lot tighter, with not much between fifth and fourth seeds Ramos-Vinolas and Carreno-Busta, who are seeded to meet in the third quarter-final. It’s Carreno-Busta who has won their only previous meeting, but he lost the first-set 6-0 when doing so. However, both of them will do well to make it to the final if their semi-final opponent is number-2 seed Pablo Cuevas – as he holds head-to-head leads over both of them.
If the final is between Nishikori and Cuevas, it is Nishikori who has won their only previous match. That was in 2011 but, whilst one match isn’t conclusive proof, it’s Nishikori who has shot-up the world-rankings since.
Nishikori is 15-places above his nearest opponent Cuevas in the world rankings and, with head-to-head form also suggesting he holds a significant advantage, he looks a good thing this week if injury doesn’t strike. I think he would be odds-on – so the 3/2 with Skybet looks well worth taking.
ATP Buenos Aires Tennis Prediction
Kei Nishikori, Win @ 3/2 (Skybet) or 11/8 (Coral)