With the odds shortening rapidly and bookies now making it a prominent option for the near-future, what are the real chances of there being a 2nd EU referendum and what is the likely result?
Will there be a Second EU Referendum?
If you ask Theresa May or a Downing Street official they will all give you a firm no. Then again, these are the same people who said there wouldn’t be a snap general election so let’s just say their word is hardly golden.
Having said that, civil servants have reportedly been preparing for a second referendum (just in case of course) – including Leave and Remain, or a second option on whether to back May’s deal or leave on WTO terms.
Plenty of MPs within Mrs May’s own party have all publicly supported a second vote including prominent figures such as Tobias Ellwood, Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve and Justine Greening.
There are also the millions who have protested – Can they really be ignored?
What will the Ballot Paper Include?
If there is a second vote, the next question everyone is asking is ‘what will the ballot paper include?’
And, unfortunately, there’s no straight forward answer. It seems like most opinions are that it should not be a simple case of Remain and Leave. Instead, it should include Remain, Leave with No Deal, Leave with May’s Deal.
Voters would then be asked to make a second preference vote. The option with the least votes will be removed first and those who voted for the removed option will have their second preference taken into consideration. The concern here, of course, is that the electorate may not understand this way of voting.
Reasons For and Against a People’s Vote
Those against the people’s vote claim that we had a vote with a clear majority and that we can’t constantly hold referendum until we one party gets the result they so desire.
However, those for it simply argue that people are entitled to change their mind and that people have probably changed their mind now that they have a clearer picture of what leaving really means.
The Tories, as a party are against having a second referendum. They’ve spent the last 2 years negotiating the exit deal so don’t want to have wasted that time.
Labour, as always, can’t make their minds up. As one MP and they’ll be pro 2nd referendum, ask another and they’ll say it’s a bad idea and ask a third and they’ll say they’d prefer a general election (because that’s just what we need).
Lib Dems and Greens are publicly for having a second referendum.
What will the Result be?
Trump and Brexit go to show that polls can get it wrong and results can be unpredictable. With the previous vote going 52/48, we wouldn’t be surprised if the result is a similar split – which way the split goes is another question though!
Our Second EU Referendum Free Tip: Will there be a 2nd Referendum? Yes @ 2.50 Betfair and PaddyPower
How would you Vote?
We love a poll at Betting Gods, especially when you consider most of the time our political polls have correctly predicted the outcome of elections. So vote below in our anonymous poll and let’s see if we can predict the result of a second EU referendum.
How Would you Vote in a People's Vote?
Odds Correct at Time of Publication