2019 Summer Mile Stakes Preview [FREE Tip Inside]
he 2019 Group 2 Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Saturday 13 July, 4.00pm) is open to horses aged four and older and takes place over 7 furlongs and 213 yards at Ascot. The race was established in 1986 and notable winners have included Warning, Markofdistinction, Dick Turpin, Mutalkayyef, and Beat The Bank.
Check out our 10-Year-Trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the Summer Mile Stakes at Ascot 2019.
Summer Mile Stakes 10-Year-Trends
The last 10 winners of the Summer Mile Stakes have all been aged either four, five or six. Nine winners carried 9-1, with the other carrying 9-4. Seven winners have been drawn no higher than stall-five, with the others drawn in stalls six, seven, and eight.
Four winners had won their previous race, but the others had filled a variety of places between second and tenth. 142-days is the longest absence overcome, but nine winners had raced in between 14 and 48 days prior to their success.
William Haggas has trained three of the last 10 winners, whilst Andrew Balding is the only other trainer with a runner this year to have won the race in the last decade. Nine of the last 10 winners have been returned at no bigger than 4/1, but the other was a 33/1 shocker.
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Summer Mile Runner-By-Runner Guide
Ran poorly in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot behind a few of these off level-weights, and it will be a surprise if this winner of a Group 1 in Meydan in March can now concede weight to some of those re-opposing rivals under his Group 1 penalty. He also disappointed on his previous visit to Ascot and is drawn wider than ideal.
Beat The Bank
Last year’s winner usually disappoints in Group 1 races, but he was only beaten a neck in the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot last time. The form of that race was also boosted when the third again went close in a Group 1 win on Thursday. He’s also four wins from four runs in Group 2 company. The negative is he carries a 3lb penalty here, but he has carried that penalty in one of his previous successes at this level.
Last year’s Queen Anne Stakes winner ruined Royal Ascot for his connections by refusing to race, which makes him a risky proposition here. But should he start, this Group 1 winner would have a decent chance as he doesn’t have a penalty. He finished in front of Beat The Bank in last year’s Queen Anne, and in both the last two editions of the Lockinge Stakes, so he looks overpriced on that form.
Bounced back to form in a Listed Race last time and his stable has been in excellent form throughout July. The negatives are that he was well-beaten in the Queen Anne Stakes and was beaten into second in two Group 2 races before that.
Has won in Ireland and America for his connections but is 0 from 19 in England. He’s also twice been beaten by Beat The Bank at this level and generally falls short of what is required. Could sneak a place if everything goes to plan.
Tip Two Win
50/1 runner-up in the 2,000 Guineas in 2018 and he has had just three runs since. His last two runs have been over seven and six furlongs, so he could be better back at a mile today, but he still has something to prove for a trainer that’s not had a winner for over a month.
Won a novice race, a handicap, and a Listed Race last year but he also flopped in a Group 3. Well-beaten in a Listed Race on his seasonal debut behind Zaaki but was a decent second last time in another Listed Race. This is a big-step up in class, and he needs to find some improvement to trouble the judge.
Won a Listed Race and a Group 3 this season and this Group 2 Race seems a natural progression for a potentially improving Sir Michael Stoute four-year-old. But his neck defeat of Barney Roy, who was beaten five-lengths in the Queen Anne, suggests he does need to take a further step forward.
Represents trainer William Haggas but fillies don’t have a great record in the race. Her form also doesn’t suggest she’ll be troubling the best of these.
Summer Mile Stakes Verdict 2019
The form book suggests Dream Castle, Matterhorn, Suedois, Wadilsafa, and Awesometank having a few pounds to find, and it’s hard to see why any of them will suddenly find the required improvement.
I’m also keen to take on the favourite Zaaki, who seems to be priced-up more on the fact he’s an older horse trained by Sir Michael Stoute rather than the bare form of his two wins this season. Tip Two Win is potentially overpriced on his return to a mile, but the form of his stable is off-putting.
Beat The Bank is harder to dismiss, as he has a 100% record in Group 2 races. But the vote goes to Accidental Agent, who has finished in front of Beat The Bank on several occasions. He’s also an unpenalized Group 1 winner, who’s receiving 3lb from that rival.
It could be that we’ll do our money in the stalls, if he refuses to race again, but he looks the value bet with his stable having had four winners from its last 16 runners.
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Accidental Agent @ 8.00 Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, BetVictor
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