2019 Lockinge Stakes Analysis [And 2 Free Tips]

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2019 Lockinge Stakes Analysis [And 2 Free Tips]

Posted May 17, 2019 | By Tim @ Betting Gods

The 2019 Lockinge stakes (15:40 Sat 18th May) takes place over the straight mile at Newbury Racecourse and it’s a first chance of the season for horses aged four and older to test their mettle in Group 1 company.

This will be the 62nd edition of the Lockinge Stakes, and recent notable winners have included Ribchester, Farhh, and Frankel.

Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tips for the 2019 Lockinge Stakes.

Lockinge Stakes 10-Year-Trends

All of the Lockinge winners in the last decade have been aged either four or five and the last 10 winners were rated no lower than 113.

The draw has strongly favoured horses drawn low in recent years, with the last nine winners being boxed in either stall, two, three, four, five, or six.

The Hannon stable is the most successful stable with a runner this year, having sent out four of the last nine winners.

Lockinge Stakes Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019

Accidental Agent

Surprise winner of a weak-looking Queen Anne Stakes last year and he didn’t fire in two runs after that. However, he was sixth in last year’s renewal of this race a massive price, from a wider than ideal draw, and he’s much better drawn in stall-three this year. Officially rated just 1lb below the best horses in the field and he could prove overpriced if he produces his best form.

Beat The Bank

Won his fourth Group 2 race on his seasonal reappearance but, despite being unbeaten at that level, he just hasn’t been able to hack it at Group 1 level so far. This certainly isn’t the best Group 1 ever, and he has a low-draw, but he may find this level beyond him once more.

Le Brivido

Finished second in the French 2,000 Guineas in 2017 and then won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. After just one run last season, he was transferred to Aidan O’Brien, but he didn’t enhance his reputation when beaten by a 105 rated rival on his stable debut. O’Brien could work his magic, but he’ll need to take a big step forward from stall-14, having not looked the strongest of stayers over a mile in his career so far.

Lord Glitters

Six-year-old that enjoyed a decent prep run at Meydan when third behind two useful rivals. However, he’s struggled at Group 1 level so far in his career and stall-11 may not be ideal.

Mustashry

Another six-year-old that has some solid form and he probably needed his prep run when finishing third when conceding 5lb to two useful rivals. Form so far hasn’t suggested he’ll win a Group 1, but is rated just 2lb lower than the top horses and is nicely drawn in stall-five.

Mythical Magic

Four-year-old that is nicely drawn in stall-four and comes here after the best win of his career in a Group 2 on turf at Meydan. That race was run around a bend though and he has something to prove on this straight mile.

Ostilio

Won three handicaps and a weak Group 2 last season but finished last in Group 2 company on his seasonal reappearance. It’s asking a lot of him to produce a career best from stall-10 here.

Romanised

Joint top-rated horse who earned that rating with a standout performance to win last year’s Irish 2,000 Guineas. May simply have outstayed a couple of horses that are better suited to shorter distances that day and subsequent form leaves him with something to find with a few of today’s rivals.

Sharja Bridge

His stable has enjoyed plenty of big race success this season but he was beaten by Beat The Bank last time. That suggests he may struggle against the best of these.

Sir Dancealot

Best form over shorter distances and in a lower grade, so there are too many questions to answer for him to be a betting proposition.

Without Parole

Had a big reputation last year and he justified that by winning the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes. However, he flopped in stronger Group 1’s later and he needs to have come on quite a bit after finishing behind Lord Glitters at Meydan.

Billesdon Brook

Shock winner of last year’s 1,000 Guineas but, though she’s been a real money-spinner for the Hannon stable, it will be a surprise if she can give them a fifth Lockinge winner in ten years, even if she has a reasonable draw in stall-two.

I Can Fly

Seemed to relish soft ground when only just beaten by Roaring Lion last year in a Group 1, but had earlier been well-beaten by Laurens on quicker ground. She also finished well behind Lord Glitters at Meydan last time.

Laurens

Ran in seven Group 1 races last season, winning four of them on decent ground over a mile and 10 furlongs. She had excuses for two of those defeats, as one was on soft ground at the end of a busy season and she failed to stay 12-furlongs in another. It’s a slight worry that she was beaten first time out last season, when she was still second in the 1,000 Guineas, but that’s a worry considering she’s drawn in stall-12.

Lockinge Stakes Verdict

As the only multiple Group 1 winner, Laurens would have looked a solid each-way bet if she was drawn lower, and it’s notable that the other market leader La Brivido also has a wide draw. Meanwhile, other leading fancies like Beat The Bank, Mustashry, and Sharja Bridge don’t look like Group 1 horses.

That’s why it could be worth taking a punt on a couple of outsiders that are well-drawn in Mythical Magic and Accidental Hero. Mythical Magic could still have the necessary improvement in him after putting up his best performance last time on only his eighth start.

Meanwhile, Accidental Hero is a Group 1 winner that could easily hit the frame after being sixth last year from a wide draw.

Free Tip For The 2019 Lockinge Stakes
Mythical Magic (4 Places Each-Way) @ 19.00 Ladbrokes, Coral
Free Tip For The 2019 Lockinge Stakes
Accidental Hero (4 Places Each-Way) @ 34.00 BetVictor, Coral
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    • Darren @ Betting Gods
      Darren @ Betting Gods

      Even us Bods make mistakes sometimes Damien, sucks right?
      Anyway, thanks for the heads-up and congrats on an awesome surname ;)

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  1. Avatar

    LE BRIVIDO, and Without Parole must be respected 1st was running on last time out up centre track while others were on stands so must improve in this his 3rd run and 2nd horse must have e/w claims for his 5th last time and decent jockey onboard

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