2019 Hackwood Stakes Analysis [FREE Tip Inside]
The Group 3 Hackwood Stakes (Saturday 20 July, 3.00pm) takes place at Newbury over 6-furlongs. The race is open to horses aged three and older and has been won by the likes of Lake Coniston, Invincible Spirit, Deacon Blues, and The Tin Man.
Check out our 10-year-trends, analysis, and free tip for the 2019 Hackwood Stakes.
Hackwood Stakes 10-Year-Trends
4-year-olds have won half of the last 10 editions of the Hackwood Stakes, with two 3-year-olds, two 5-year-olds, and one 6-year-old also successful. Only one of those winners carried more than 9-4 to victory. Four winners had won their previous race, but plenty of winners have also won this after running down the field in higher-class races. However, all winners in the last decade had run between seven and 28 days prior to their Hackwood Stakes victory.
Charlie Hills and James Fanshawe have both trained two winners in the last decade. Winners have also generally been towards the head of the market with nine winners returned at odds no bigger than 4/1, whilst the other winner was priced up at just 15/2.
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Hackwood Stakes 2019 Notable Runners
The Tin Man
James Fanshawe’s Group 1 winning seven-year-old may be older than any other winner in the last decade. But he still sets the standard according to the handicapper who has him top-rated on a mark of 116, 5lb clear of his nearest rival. His two runs this year have also suggested he still retains plenty of ability, having conceded 7lb when beaten by two useful rivals at Windsor and when sixth at Royal Ascot in Group 1 company. He’s rarely seen in Group 3 company but was an easy winner of the 2016 edition of this race, when officially rated 2lb lower.
Improving Charlie Hills-trained 3-year-old that won a Listed race on his seasonal debut before being pitched into Group 1 company in the Commonwealth Cup. His reputation was dented there as he trailed home in seventh place, but he didn’t help his cause with a slow start that meant he was never really in with a chance. However, it’s interesting that he was sent-off at a shorter-price than the winner Advertise that day, and Charlie Hills has trained two of the last four winners.
Couldn’t win a Group 3 over 7-furlongs on his first start of the season but has won Group 3 and Listed Races either side of that over 6-furlongs. The problem with backing him is he has done all of his winning on soft or heavy ground and the rain that is due to fall before Saturday will probably need to be heavier than is forecast for him to have his ideal conditions.
Six-year-old who has an excellent record in Group 3 company, having finished second twice before beating Dream Of Dreams at Ascot. But he’s another horse that is at his best on soft ground, though it was riding good-to-firm when he finished second in the 2018 Hackwood Stakes behind Yafta, a horse he was rated superior to at the time.
Laugh A Minute
Has finished fourth, second, and second in Group 3 races so far but he seems to lack that touch of class needed to win a race like this. Things may all fall right for him one day, but this looks a decent edition of this race on paper and he may find at least one or two too good.
3-year-old that has had just three runs so far, being returned at 20/1, 25/1, and 33/1. But he has outrun those odds on the last two occasions, winning a novice race, and finishing half-a-length second to Khaadem last time. Possible he could improve again but needs to.
Raised 3lb for his first three runs in handicaps this season but that didn’t stop him from winning a big handicap last time off a mark of 97. He’s obviously improving but has been beaten in three Listed Races and a Group 3 may be beyond him.
Six-year-old that has been a good money-spinner over the years but, though he’s run well in Group 1 races, his best performances have come on much softer ground. His second behind Brando last time looked a good effort at the time but both the winner and the third horse have let the form down since.
Hackwood Stakes 2019 Verdict
Oxted and Recon Mission have quite a bit to find at the weights, whilst the likes of Snazzy Jazzy, Donjuan Triumphant and Projection would become more interesting if the heavens open between now and Saturday. Laugh A Minute has each-way chances, but this could turn into a match between The Tin Man and Khaadem.
Both horses are course and distance winners and take a drop-in-class after being unplaced in Group 1 company on their last starts. Their trainers have also both won this race twice in the last 10-years. The Tin Man has the least to prove, as his rating entitles him to win this by a length or more, but the seven-year could be vulnerable to the 3-year-old.
Khaadem won his second, third, and fourth starts and was fancied to run well in the Commonwealth Cup but fluffed the start. At an each-way price, he looks the value against The Tin Man, with trainer Charlie Hills having done well with sprinters owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum in recent seasons.
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Khaadem (Each-Way) @ 7.50 Ladbrokes
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