2019 Falmouth Stakes Analysis [FREE Tip Inside]

2019 Falmouth Stakes Analysis [FREE Tip Inside]

July 11, 2019

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The Group 1 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (Friday 12 July, 3.35pm) is the highlight on the second day of Newmarket’s Moet & Chandon July Festival. It is run over one mile on the July Course and is restricted to fillies and mares aged three or older. The race was established in 1911 and has been won by class fillies such as Sonic Lady, Soviet Star, Goldikova, Alice Springs, and Alpha Centauri.

Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the Falmouth Stakes 2019.

Falmouth Stakes 10-Year-Trends

4-year-olds have won six of the last 10 editions of the Falmouth Stakes, with 3-year-olds winning the other four, including the last three renewals. In fields varying between four and 11 runners, nine winners have been drawn no higher than stall-five.

Only three of the last 10 winners had won their previous race but the last nine had finished no worse than fourth last time out. All 10 had run between 19 and 75 days prior to their success.

Aidan O’Brien trained the 2016 and 2017 winners, making him the only trainer to win the race twice in the last decade. Ryan Moore rode both those horses, making it three winning rides in the last five-years for him.

Six winners have been returned at less than 3/1, but the race has had its fair share of bigger-priced winners at 13/2, 17/2, 10/1, and 16/1.

Falmouth Stakes Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019

Beshaayir

4-year-old who is one of two entries for trainer William Haggas who has yet to win this Group 1. After winning two races as a two-year-old, she progressed through handicaps before winning a Listed Race on her final start as a 3-year-old. She looked to have improved again when winning a Group 2 on her seasonal debut in Ireland, where she beat both I Can Fly and stablemate One Master, but she is 3lb worse off with One Master this time. She was also ridden by Frankie Dettori for the first time that day, and he maintains the partnership. She’s yet to run on the July Course but has won her only start on the Rowley Mile Course here at Newmarket.

I Can Fly

Useful 4-year-old filly trained by Aidan O’Brien, but her best form has come at Ascot on soft ground. Having been beaten by Beshaayir on the same terms earlier this season, she ran better at Royal Ascot when third in a Group 2, but finished behind another William Haggas-trained horse to whom she was conceding 3lb. She’s also not been at her best in three runs on the Rowley Mile Course, but this will be her first run on the July Course.

One Master

Bidding to become only the third 5-year-old to win the Falmouth Stakes in the last 40-years but is officially the top-rated filly by 3lb. She ran a blinder to finish third in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, but she seemed to get outstayed in the final stages, and she’s yet to win at further than 7½ furlongs. All her four wins have also come with a big of cut in the ground, so she does have a few questions to answer on her first visit to Newmarket, on ground is likely to be faster than ideal.

Veracious

Sir Michael Stoute has trained four fillies to win the Falmouth Stakes but this one has won just two of her races and has come up short when tried at this level before. She also finished fourth last time, one place behind I Can Fly who is 3lb better off at the weights, suggesting she needs to find a bit of improvement from somewhere.

Mot Juste

Beaten on the July Course on her racecourse debut but finished her 2-year-old season with a win on the Rowley Mile Course in a Group 3. Ran well behind her re-opposing stablemate Qabala in the Nell Gwyn but didn’t seem to appreciate the step up to a mile when finishing nearer last than first in the 2,000 Guineas. She was bumped in the final stages but didn’t look likely to trouble the principals at the time.

Qabala

3-year-old filly that didn’t make her racecourse debut until September 2018. That was only a maiden but she made a good impression when landing a serious gamble when winning this year’s Nell Gywn. She was then made favourite for the 1,000 Guineas but could only finish third in a messy race from a tough draw. A bigger negative is she flopped in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, but she may not have liked travelling to Ireland, whilst that was also her third run in six weeks. Trainer Roger Varian has freshened her up since and she should take some beating if returning to her best.

Falmouth Stakes Verdict 2019

Only six runners go to post and there’s a chance that this could turn into a tactical affair with Beshaayir the most likely to benefit from setting her own fractions if allowed an easy lead. She executed those tactics successfully when beating both I Can Fly and One Master in Ireland and looks to have been kept fresh for this race since.

However, whilst Beshaayir should also have the measure of Veracious and Mot Juste, she may not be able to repel the challenge of Qabala if Roger Varian’s filly is in the same form as when winning the Nell Gwyn. She showed a great turn-of-foot over 7-furlongs that day and that will be a useful weapon if this is a steadily run affair. Her stable also had three winners on Wednesday, so there’s a good chance she’ll be at her best.

Free Tip For The 2019 Falmouth Stakes
Qabala @ 4.50 Bet365, SkyBet, William Hill, Ladbrokes

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