It’s doubtful whether the 2019/20 Premier League will produce a shock winner of such epic proportions as Leicester’s win in 2015/16. However, if you want to cheer on a team other than either Manchester or Liverpool – the Premier League handicap betting could be the market to do it in.
If you’ve not got involved before, you’ll find most leading bookmakers produce a Premier League handicap betting market in which each team is given a virtual number of points to start with. These points are then added to the actual number of points each team gets at the end of the season – and the winner is the team with the highest total. Many bookmakers also offer each-way terms of ¼ odds for the top four places, so you can hedge your bets if you want.
What Points The Teams Scored Last Season
A great starting point of reference is how many points each team scored last season. You can then add these to the handicap points on offer and see which team would have come out on top. You can see this below with the handicap start for this season added.
Man City 98 + scratch = 98
Liverpool 97 + 4 = 101
Chelsea 72 +16 =88
Tottenham 71 + 13 =84
Arsenal 70 +16 = 86
Manchester United 66 + 20 = 86
Wolves 57 + 32 = 89
Everton 54 + 31 = 85
Leicester 52 + 34 =86
West Ham 52 +38 = 90
Watford 50 + 43 =93
Crystal Palace 49 + 45 = 94
Newcastle 48 + 46 = 94
Bournemouth 45 + 44 = 89
Burnley 40 + 49 = 89
Southampton 39 + 43 = 82
Brighton 36 + 48 = 84
Aston Villa promoted + 46 = ?
Norwich promoted + 50 = ?
Sheffield United promoted + 52 = ?
Premier League 2019/20 Handicap Betting Analysis
Liverpool and Man City accumulated the highest points totals last year, and this year’s handicap totals suggest the bookies think both those teams will struggle to match last season’s totals. That could be for two reasons. Firstly, they set a very high standard last year, which they may not be able to match.
Secondly, it may be that the bookies think that other Premier League teams will have better seasons this year, making it more difficult for the top two teams to be as dominant.
Manchester United would be a danger if reproducing their total of 80 points achieved two seasons ago and that would see them score 100 points with their handicap added. Tottenham would achieve a total of 99 points if matching their 2016/17 haul of 86 points.
Arsenal haven’t produced the sort of total they’d need to win in any of the last three seasons, but Chelsea won the Premier League with 93 points three seasons ago. However, it’s asking a lot of new manager Frank Lampard to achieve such a total, especially after the departure of Eden Hazard.
After their amazing win in 2015/16, Leicester achieved their highest total since with 52 points last season. Many people think they will take another step up this season but may need another 14 points to get competitive in this market.
Everton, Wolves, and West Ham also need a much better season than last season, whilst Crystal Palace, Watford, and Newcastle don’t have to improve much at all to get competitive but aren’t fancied to do so. Bournemouth made a great start last season but the fact they couldn’t sustain it suggests they may also struggle.
It’s harder to predict how the promoted teams will fare this season, but Aston Villa would have to be challenging for a position in the top-half of the table to win the handicaps with a 46-point start.
Norwich and Sheffield United both have over 50 points to play with but their lack of a proven Premier League goalscorer may hinder their chances.
Southampton are interesting if they can build on the progress that they made under their new manager last season. Hassenhutl was in charge for 23 games and amassed 30 points. If they can maintain that level of form throughout the season, they would score 50 points, which would definitely give them a squeak with a 43-points start.
It’s also worth remembering that Burnley scored 54 points two seasons ago and, without the distraction of European football, even if they score halfway between that total and last year’s total of 40 points, they will score 96 points in this betting market, which would give them an outstanding chance of at least landing some each-way money.
Premier League 2019/20 Handicap Betting Summary
The first stance you have to take is whether you think Man City and Liverpool will score as many points as last season. The gut-feeling is they will score slightly less points and, as Liverpool are expected to give City a big run for their money, I’m happy to take 15/1 each-way about them with a 4-points start.
At the other end of the handicap, I think Burnley will improve on last year’s total, now they don’t have the early distraction of European football, and I can’t see then being out of the first four with a 49-points start.