2018 TAB Turnbull Stakes
Saturday 6th October 2018
Race 5: 3.00pm (AEST)
2000 metres, WFA
X5816 1. GRUNT (9), J: MARK ZAHRA, W: 58 KGS, 12.00
11X11 2. WINX (8), J: HUGH BOWMAN, W: 57 KGS, 1.16
0X006 3. MIGHTY BOSS (7), J: MICHAEL WALKER, W: 56.5 KGS, 71.00
1X432 4. KINGS WILL DREAM (1), J: CRAIG WILLIAMS, W: 56.5 KGS, 12.00
39X43 5. JON SNOW (2), J: STEPHEN BASTER, W: 55.5 KGS, 31.00
31140 6. DIVINE UNICORN (3), J: BRENTON AVDULLA, W: 55.5 KGS, 126.00
32117 7. TRAP FOR FOOLS (6), J: BEN ALLEN, W: 55 KGS, 67.00
29X79 8. VENTURA STORM (5), J: LUKE NOLEN, W: 54.5 KGS, 61.00
551X5 9. TALLY (10), J: DAMIAN LANE, W: 54.5 KGS, 91.00
11363 10. YOUNGSTAR (4), J: KERRIN MCEVOY, W: 54.5 KGS, 21.00
Form and Predictions
It’s not very often we get to see Sydney champion WINX racing down in Melbourne. She usually puts in two appearances per season before heading home. It was this time last year that she made her first appearance at Flemington, winning this race with ease; the previous two years she made appearances across town at Caulfield. Gunning for her 28th win in succession (and 21st Group 1), it would be a brave punter to bet against her. The odds on favourite.
There has been much talk about boom galloper GRUNT, and how his form differs between Flemington (where he races very well), and his home track Caulfield, where he doesn’t race so well. You would think that home track familiarity would give him an advantage. Not so. He’s back to his best hunting ground having won two Group 1’s on this track. But Winx stands in the way of improving on that total.
If my hunch is correct, then KINGS WILL DREAM will appreciate the roomy Flemington circuit and could be coming from the clouds judging by his performances so far this prep. Could he give Winx a scare? If he does, then his favouritism for the Caulfield Cup in a fortnight will be assured.
Winx’s stablemate is the mare YOUNGSTAR, winner of the Group 1 Queensland Oaks in the winter. She could be in the mix if things pan out in the running, but she’s not quite at that elite level yet. Keep a beady eye out.
New Zealander JON SNOW is a dour stayer who will enjoy getting out to a longer trip. He can race handy to the pace, and keeps plugging away. Hasn’t got the turn of foot that others might have, but as a stepping stone to his preferred distances of 2400m and beyond, he will need the run to get miles into his legs. A place chance possibly.
I do like the flashy chestnut MIGHTY BOSS but he’s well off the pace, even with his encouraging last start sixth. Would take a minor miracle. VENTURA STORM ran second to Winx in this race last year, but since then, has done nothing of note.
I couldn’t have TALLY, DIVINE UNICORN or TRAP FOR FOOLS. The market knows best in this case.
Betting Gods Picks
Winx, Grunt, Kings Will Dream
Video Reference Guide
2017 Turnbull Stakes (Winx, Ventura Storm)
2018 Makybe Diva Stakes (Grunt, Kings Will Dream, Jon Snow)