2018 Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas
Saturday 13th October 2018
Race 9: 5.15pm (AEST)
1600 metres, 3yo colts and fillies
11X31 1. THE AUTUMN SUN (5), J: JAMES MCDONALD W: 56.5 KGS, 1.85
X3151 2. NATIVE SOLDIER (4), J: BEN ALLEN W: 56.5 KGS, 6.50
80X19 3. RAGGED RASCAL (8), J: DEAN YENDALL W: 56.5 KGS, 51.00
11321 4. LEONARDO DA HINCHI (10), J: BRAD RAWILLER W: 56.5 KGS, 8.50
X7644 5. OUTRAGEOUS (7), J: DWAYNE DUNN W: 56.5 KGS, 34.00
1X312 6. GEM SONG (11), J: CRAIG WILLIAMS W: 56.5 KGS, 18.00
2X322 7. MUSWELLBROOK (1), J: REGAN BAYLISS W: 56.5 KGS, 41.00
21138 8. GOOD ‘N’ FAST (14), J: LUKE NOLEN W: 56.5 KGS, 26.00
1X770 9. VASSILATOR (13), J: BEAU MERTENS W: 56.5 KGS, 91.00
14205 10. THE AUGUST (2), J: NOEL CALLOW W: 56.5 KGS, 34.00
X1232 11. TAVISAN (9), J: MICHAEL WALKER W: 56.5 KGS, 14.00
X2322 12. RANIER (15), J: DAMIAN LANE W: 56.5 KGS, Scratched
4X614 13. MR EXCLUSIVE (3), J: BRIAN HIGGINS W: 56.5 KGS, 71.00
4X212 14. SACCHARO (12), J: JORDAN CHILDS W: 56.5 KGS, 41.00
X5441 15. OOHOOD (6), J: LUKE CURRIE W: 54.5 KGS, 9.50
Form and Predictions
This Saturday sees the running of two Group 1 races for three-year-olds. This one, the Caulfield Guineas is the blue riband event which can seal a stallion career for the winner. Mostly it’s colts that line up here, but we get the occasional filly too, as it is open to both. We have to go way back to 1976, and the champion grey Surround as the last successful filly.
The other three-year-old event is the One Thousand Guineas for fillies. The difference being the prize money. $2.0 million for the colts, $500,000 for the fillies. These two examples are not the only cases where gender inequality is rife within sport.
As it turns out, the One Thousand Guineas looks like the harder race to win, whereas this one probably less so. That’s why trainer Tony McAvoy has opted to start his filly OOHOOD against the boys. He thinks she has a better chance here than up against her own gender. The extra prize money always helps too. She was an impressive last start winner in the Group 1 Flight Stakes, breaking her maiden ranks at the same time.
She’ll be going up against boom Sydney colt THE AUTUMN SUN, now a two-time Group 1 victor after picking up the Golden Rose three weeks ago. The question mark is whether he can handle the left-handed direction of the course. He’s the popular fancy, and a win here will cement his place as the top three-year-old going around in Australia. James McDonald to ride.
I really liked the last start win of the Darren Weir trained LEONARDO DA HINCHI. He ground out a win at Moonee Valley two weeks back that keeps his formline well above average. If there is a horse capable of pressing the two mentioned so far, he would be it. If he gets up, it will be a tribute to his sire Hinchinbrook who passed away back in July.
A stablemate of Leonardo Da Hinchi is the fast-rising improver NATIVE SOLDIER. This bloke won the Caulfield Guineas Prelude on Underwood Stakes Day two weeks ago, and cleaned up some well credentialled rivals. Based on that run, Native Soldier must be some sort of chance. See video below.
Of the others, Newcastle visitor GEM SONG has built a solid form-line, though this is up a few notches in grade. Like The Autumn Sun, this will be its first time running left handed (anti clockwise).
The former New Zealand colt TAVISAN is another with a top form line. He’s trained locally at Caulfield and ran second to Native Soldier the other week (see video below). Bred to run over distance, he could be the bolter. Rider Michael Walker knows all about bolters, as he won this race last year on 100/1 outsider Mighty Boss. Can history repeat?
Betting Gods Picks
Native Soldier, Leonardo Da Hinchi, The Autumn Sun
Video Reference Guide
2018 Caulfield Guineas Prelude (Native Soldier, Tavisan, Good ‘n Fast, Vassilator)
2018 Golden Rose (The Autumn Sun)
2018 Flight Stakes (Oohood)