2017 Sussex Stakes Preview And Tip

UK Horse Racing

2017 Sussex Stakes Preview And Tip

Posted August 2, 2017 | By Tim @ Betting Gods

The Group 1 Sussex Stakes is the highlight of the second day of Glorious Goodwood, and this first clash between the 3-year-old milers and the older generation is often billed as the “Duel on the Downs”. This year is no exception as Europe’s highest-rated older horse Ribchester takes on this year’s dual 2,000 Guineas winner Churchill in what should be a fascinating encounter.

10-Year-Trends

7 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in stall 4 or lower (though 3 of those were in fields of 4 runners

3-year-olds have won 7 of the last 10 renewals

7 of the last 10 winners had won last time out, with the other three all finishing second

8 of the last 10 winners had run 43 days ago

Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 9 winners, all 3-year-olds

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Here Comes When

Will like any cut in the ground, but last win was in a handicap, and couldn’t win a Listed Race last time. Tough ask.

Kool Kompany

Managed to win two Group 2s as a 2-year-old, but generally below that level nowadays. Beaten over 14-lengths at Royal Ascot by Ribchester, and a major surprise if he reaches the frame, let alone wins.

Lightning Spear

Group 2 winner over course and distance last year, but finished around 4-lengths second to Ribchester in the Lockinge Stakes, and has run poorly twice since. Only sixth in last year’s renewal, and likely to play a minor role even if back to his best.

Ribchester

Failed to get a clear run when third to The Ghurkha and Galileo Gold in last year’s renewal, but has improved since, and will have no problems with the slower ground here. Tough to beat, though only one 4-year-old has won in the last 10 years (and that was Frankel).

Toscanini

Fair performer in his own right, but connections have used him as a pacemaker for Ribchester recently, and likely to fulfil that role again here.

Zelzal

Won a below-standard Group 1 in France last year, but has place claims here. However, on lines through The Ghurkha and Vadamos, he will do well to beat an inform Ribchester. Runs in the colours of the race sponsor Qipco.

Zonderland

Likeable sort who could find further improvement as a 4-year-old, but will need to on the form of his second to Lightning Spear over course and distance last year. May also prefer faster ground.

Churchill

Would probably be favourite if he hadn’t run poorly at Royal Ascot, but it could be worth forgiving that run as he may just have found the ground a little fast. Won impressively with a little juice in the ground before, and three-year-olds have a much better record than the older horses in recent years.

Lancaster Bomber

Seems to run well everywhere apart from the Curragh, and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he reached the frame. However, unsurprisingly, Ryan Moore stays loyal to Churchill.

Summary

There’s a doubt about Churchill after his Royal Ascot flop, but he’s the one horse in the race with the potential to topple Ribchester. 3-year-olds also have a far superior record in the race than older horses, and Aidan O’Brien has had 6 weeks to freshen him up again.

Churchill – Win @ 15/8 with Black Type, Unibet or Betway

Published Under: UK Horse Racing /

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