2017 Sovereign Stakes Preview And Tip

UK Horse Racing

2017 Sovereign Stakes Preview And Tip

Posted August 16, 2017 | By Tim @ Betting Gods

The Sovereign Stakes (Thursday 17 August, 4.20) was established in 2000, and elevated to a Group 3 in 2004. It is run over 1 Mile at Salisbury racecourse, and the winner will receive £42,532.

10-Year-Trends

8/10 winners were drawn in stalls 2 to 6

Three 3-year-olds, two 4-year-olds, three 5-year-olds, one 6-year-old, and one 8-year-old have been successful, with 3-year-olds winning the last two renewals

Only 3 of the last 10 winners had won last time out

Winners had run between 13 and 118 days previously

9 of the last 10 winners were returned at 11/2 or less, with the other being 25/1

Andrew balding has trained 2 of the last 6 winners

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Ballard Down

102-rated 4-year-old who was last seen impressively winning a handicap off a mark of 92. 10lb rise in the weights warranted on that performance, but not matched that form before. Harry Bentley 2 out of 3 on him though.

Ballet Concerto

105-rated 4-year-old who finished 6th of 7 on his only previous try in Group 3 company, and last time out improvement came over 10½-furlongs. Ryan Moore also only 1 from 5 on him.

Carry On Deryck

109-rated 5-year-old who was second in a Group 3 race last time, and the third that day has won at this level since. Has a 313 absence to overcome though.

Firmament

Likeable sort whose last win came in a handicap off a mark of 96. Now rated 109, but has struggled in pattern company on last few tries.

Hathal

The highest-rated runner on a mark of 112, and it’s hard to knock his two third-place finishes in Group 2 company on his last two starts. Also won a Group 3 last September, and only worry is that he may prefer the ground a bit softer.

Master The World

Not won any of his three attempts at Group 3 level, but was second in last year’s renewal of this race on similar going. Arrives here in decent form too, having won last time out, and been second to Ballard Down before that, and he’s now 10lb better off with that rival.

Tabarrak

Tough ask trying to carry nearly top-weight in two big handicaps on last two starts, but finished 2-lengths in front of Firmament when winning a Listed Race before that. The Hannon Stable has also won this contest 3 times, though this would be Hannon Jnr’s first.

Isomer

3-year-old rated just 99, and the 6lb weight-for-age allowance shouldn’t be enough on the form of his comeback-run. However he looked a non-stayer over 10-furlongs and, with more room for improvement than most of his rivals, it’s worth remembering he finished second to Churchill at Royal Ascot as a 2-year-old. Andrew Balding has also won 2 of the last 6 renewals.

Summary

Hathal and Tabarrak are rated 112 and 111, and victory for either would come as no surprise. However, the Andrew Balding trained Isomer is the only 3-year-old in the race, and he could out-run his big-odds now dropped to a mile.

Isomer – Each-Way @ 33/1 Betway, PaddyPower, BetVictor, WilliamHill

Published Under: UK Horse Racing /

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