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2017 Park Hill Stakes Trends And Tip

Published on September 14, 2017 by Tim @ Betting Gods

The Group 2 Park Hill Stakes (Thursday 14 September, 3.00) is the highlight of the second day of Doncaster’s St Leger Meeting. It is open to fillies or mares aged three or older, and is run over a trip of 14½-furlongs. First run in 1975, its most famous winner is arguably last year’s winner Secret Verse, who had won the St Leger the previous year.

Trends

4-year-olds have won 5 of the last 7 renewals, 3-year-olds 4 of the last 10

Winners have come from stalls 1 to 14, though 3 of the last 9 were birthed in stall 4

4 of the last 10 winners had won last time out

Sir Michael Stoute has trained 2 of the last 10 winners, and 4 in all

Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori have both ridden 2 of the last 10 winners

SPs of the last 10 winners have ranged from 7/4 to 28/1

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Alyssa

4-year-old trained by last year’s winning trainer Ralph Beckett, but was well-beaten in last year’s renewal when getting weight as a 3-year-old. Might have had an off day there though, and not entirely ruled out in what looks a weaker renewal.

Dubka

4-year-old whose best form has come on soft ground, and the form of her seconds to the high-class pair Endless Time and Bateel give her a strong chance if she can repeat it here. The fact she won her only start here easily, be it only a handicap win off a mark of 75, gives hope that she might, and she is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Groovejet

Fifth in the 2015 renewal and, as her mark hasn’t improved since, this looks a big ask even from stall-4.

Harlequeen

Hasn’t really built on her third-place finish in last year’s Epsom Oaks, and was only ninth behind several re-opposing rivals at Goodwood in August.

Natural Scenery

Top-rated, and has winning form over further, which could prove useful if the ground becomes testing. However, finished about a length behind Dubka and Melodic Motion at Goodwood in August over this sort of trip.

Sweet Selection

Ran well in last year’s Doncaster Cup before winning the Cesarawitch, and started the season with a bang by winning the Sagaro Stakes. Not so good since in much better company than this, and a chance if the trip doesn’t prove on the short side for her.

Aljezeera

Only had the three runs for four-time winning trainer Luca Cumani, and looked to be crying out for a step-up in trip when flying home all two late in the Galtres Stakes at York over 12-furlongs. Likely big improver today, with Frankie Dettori retaining the mount, and won her maiden here.

Detailed

Improving handicapper who relishes soft ground, and step up in trip likely. Has a bit to find at the weights, though many of these have also come through the handicap route.

Melodic Motion

Hat-trick of handicap successes earlier this season saw last year’s winning connections step her up to Group Company last time at Goodwood where, despite racing keenly early, she finished just a neck behind Dubka. Unlikely to be far away at the finish.

Wild Irish Rose

Aidan O’Brien trained filly who finished behind Dubka, Melodic Motion and Natural Scenery at Goodwood in August. Ryan Moore has again opted to ride Dubka, so he obviously thinks she’s unlikely to reverse the placings.

Summary

There’s unlikely to be much between Dubka, Melodic Motion and Natural Scenery on their running at Goodwood, with Dubka fancied to again come out on top of that trio having already proved herself here at Doncaster. However, a chance is taken that Aljezeera will improve past them all now stepped up in trip.

Tip: Aljezeera @ 15/2 PaddyPower or 7/1 with most other bookies

 

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