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2017 Nell Gwyn Stakes Preview And Tip

Published on April 19, 2017 by Tim @ Betting Gods

The Nell Gwyn Stakes (Wednesday 3.35) is a 7-furlong group-3 race for 3-year-old fillies run on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile.

It was first run in 1961, and the winner of the 1,000 Guineas has used this race as a prep-race twice in the last 11-years, with Speciosa winning both races in 2006, whilst Sky Lantern finished second in the 2013 renewal before winning the first fillies classic of the season.


10-Year-Trends

Winners have been drawn 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 12 and 13, with 3 winners drawn in stall 11

Only 3 of the last 10 winners had won last time out

Winners ran 11 to 210 days previously

SPs have ranged from 4/5 to 28/1

John Gosden has trained 2 of the last 9 winners

Frankie Dettori has ridden 4 of the last 8 winners, including the last 3


Runner-By-Runner Guide

Brave Anna

Hit-and-miss 2-year-old season with 3 wins and 3 unplaced runs. However, she pipped stablemate Roly Poly here in the Group-1 Cheveley Park, when allowed to go off at 25/1. Has to concede Roly Poly 3lb here, and Ryan Moore has stayed loyal to Roly Poly. Disappointed when stepped-up to 7-furlongs last season.

Choumicha

Maiden winner who could only manage to finish sixth on her final start in a Listed Event. That form not good enough, but interesting that she’s a full-sister to the stable’s 2,000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold.

Daban

Won her only start as a 2-year-old and, though she needs to have improved massively over the winter, she runs from the powerful combination of Gosden and Dettori, and is also drawn in stall-11.

Kazimiera

Won on debut, and then finished fourth and second in two listed events. Bare form needs improving on, but Dubawi’s offspring often do better as 3-year-olds.

Kilmah

Has about a stone to find with the principals and, as one of the most experienced fillies in the line-up, she may not have room for as much improvement as some of the others.

Pamplemousse

Unraced at two, but made a lasting impression when winning on debut at Chantilly. There hasn’t been a French winner before, so interesting that leading French trainer Andre Fabre, who won the 1,000 Guineas in 2014, send her over.

Poet’s Vanity

Made giant strides from her debut to winning her maiden by 10-lengths, and confirmed the merit of that performance with a group-3 victory on her final start. Further improvement likely, and impossible to rule out.

Roly Poly

Ryan Moore stays loyal to her, despite being beaten by Brave Anna here last season. However, that was over 6-fulongs, and trainer Aidan O’Brien suggested in his recent stable tour that Roly Ploy is much more likely to appreciate the step-up in trip than her stablemate.

Sea Of Grace

Besten over 7-furlongs on debut, but won her next two starts over 7½ furlongs and a mile. First run for William Haggas, and she might just prefer the mile of the 1,000 Guineas rather than the 7-furlongs here.

Tallulah Rose

First run for Karl Burke, who knows how to train decent fillies, but she needs to find plenty of improvement on the form-book.

Unforgettable Filly

Open to further improvement after just 4-runs, but held by Poet’s Vanity when they clashed last season.


2017 Nell Gwyn Stakes Summary

The two Aidan O’Brien trained fillies have obvious chances, but O’Brien has yet to win this race. Meanwhile, Sea Of Grace looks like a 1,000 Guineas horse, but may not be full wound-up first-time out over 7-furlongs. Therefore, it may be worth taking an each-way chance on Daban, with John Gosden having trained 4 previous winners, and Frankie Dettori having ridden 6 previous winners. She’s also drawn in stall-11, and the winner has come from that stall 3 times in the last 7 years.

Daban : Each-Way @ 12/1 Bet365, SkyBet, William Hill

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