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2017 John Musker Fillies Stakes Preview And Tip

Published on September 20, 2017 by Tim @ Betting Gods

The John Musker Fillies Stakes (Wednesday, 20 September) is a Listed Race run over 10 furlongs and 23 yards at Yarmouth. It was first run in 1993, and was won last year by John Gosden’s So Mi Dar.

10-Year-Trends

8 of the last 10 winners have been 3-year-olds

7 of the last 10 winners have been drawn 5 or lower

Only 4 of the last 10 winners had won last time out

Winners had run between 17 and 126 days previously

John Gosden and David Simcock are the only trainers with runners to have won the race in the last decade

8 of the last 10 winners have been returned at 5/1 or less, though the other two were returned 20/1 and 125/1

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Beautiful Morning

4-year-old who is joint top-rated on 102, but has been beaten on all 3 previous tries in Listed Races. Handles soft ground, and bidding to become the first Irish Trained winner of the race. Drawn in stall 2.

Florenza

2 of the last 3 winners have been drawn in stall-1, but she has 12lb to fins on ratings with the horse drawn next to her.

High Hopes

Won twice at this trip on softish ground, and went close in a Listed Race when second last time. Trainer and jockey both have good strike-rates here, but drawn in stall-9.

Indulged

Steps into Listed Race for first time, and finished in front of High Hopes when receiving 7lb earlier in the season. Still rated 5lb lower than that rival, but probably won’t be much between them on level-terms.

Jelly Monger

Rated just 85, and a lot to find.

Sagely

Rated just 88, and shouldn’t be winning this after only finishing seventh in a handicap on her last start.

Something Thrilling

Another stepping out of handicaps for the first time, but well-beaten off a mark of 91 last time. Silvestre De Sousa will have to bring about marked improvement.

Al Mayda

Lightly-raced 30-year-0ld who won a maiden two starts ago, but finished last on her handicap debut. Loads of improvement required, and stable have a much higher-rated runner.

Flood Warning

Won three times this season, and second in a Listed race last time. Winner didn’t do much for the form last time out, but the third ran well to be second in a Group 2 at the St Leger Meeting.

Ouja

Improving sort, and trained by last year’s winning trainer John Gosden. However, finished behind Aljezeera last time, who had finished behind Flood Warning the time before.

Titi Makfi

Handles conditions well, and finished in front of Indulged at Goodwood earlier this season on identical terms.

Vintage Filly

Officially the best filly at the weights, though her 3 runs are hard to gauge. She won her maiden, then got raised 23lb for finishing second to Shutter Speed in a Group 3, and then finished last in a Group 2. Stable in form, but drawn widest of all.

Summary

3-year-olds have a great record in this race, but the likes of Vintage Folly and Titi Makfi are drawn wide. Therefore, it might be worth taking a chance on Flood Warning, as she’s shown she knows how to win, handles conditions, and hails from a stable with a 50% strike-rate in the last week.

John Musker Fillies Stakes Tip

Flood Warning Each-Way @ 12/1 Bet365 or BetVictor

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