The weights for the 2017 Grand National were unveiled on Tuesday – so it’s time to take a look at some of the statistics for the last 10-years in an attempt to unveil some tasty ante-post punts.
Winners in the last decade have carried between 10-3 and 11-9, with only 3 of the last 10 winners carrying more than 11-0. It’s a similar scenario in regard to the placed horses, with only 13 of the 40 horses to finish in the first-four in the last 10 years carrying more than 11-0, whilst 27 of the 40 carried 11-0 or less.
The ratings of the winners vary between 137 and 160, though it’s highly unlikely any horse rated less than 145 will get in this year, as that mark currently represents the 65th horse in the list, with a maximum field of 40 runners going to post.
Starting-Prices have also varied dramatically from 7/1 to 100/1 in the last 10 years with the full SP’s being 33/1, 25/1, 25/1, 66/1, 33/1, 14/1, 10/1JF, 100/1, 7/1JF, 33/1.
Top-weight Outlander has already been ruled-out by his trainer, but it’s likely the weights will rise only 1lb or 3lb, with the fourth highest-rated horse Don Poli an almost certain runner, and the second highest-rated horse Champagne West a possibility.
However, plenty of horses not currently in the field look assured to get a run with quite a lot of the current top-40 likely to be non-runners.
Five horses catch the eye at this stage of proceedings:
Blaklion 33/1 (Bet365) ¼ odds 5-Places
Currently set to carry 10-10, Blaklion should have to carry no more than 10-13 if Don Poli and Champagne West stand their ground, and last year’s RSA Chase winner has always looked like he’ll relish a stamina test. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has also already won the race twice before with Bindaree and Earth Summit. He’s also already favourite for the Grand National Trial at Haydock on Saturday – and his price looks sure to crumble if winning there.
Ballynagour 100/1 (Paddy Power) ¼ odds 5 places
Good ground would be a prerequisite for David Pipe’s 11-year-old, who was pulled-up in the 2016 Grand National when the ground was soft. He went into that race rated 157 but, now down to a very workable 148, it is worth remembering that he ran Silviniacao Conti to a head in the 2015 Betfred Bowl. He also put-up two decent performances last summer in finishing second off marks of 152 and 157.
O’Faolins Boy @ 40/1 (Bet365) ¼ odds 5 places
The 2014 RSA Chase winner isn’t easy to catch right, but the form of that RSA win was pretty impressive with the likes of Smad Place and Carlingford Lough behind. The handicapper has also given him a real chance by dropping him to a mark of 148, which is 8lb lower than when having no chance in last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Lord Windermere @ 50/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power) ¼ odds 5 places
The 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner was pulled-up in the 2015 renewal having tried to carry 11-10 (rated 161) on ground he hated. However, he really caught the eye on his comeback run this season when just touched-off by Champagne Fever, and a mark of 147 this time around means he’ll have a lovely low-weight.
Triolo D’Alene @ 66/1 (Paddy Power) ¼ odds 5 places
Another for who good ground is a must according to his trainer, who has made no secret of the fact that he’s aiming his 2013 Hennessey winner at the race. Still only 10, he’s now rated 3lb lower than that Hennessey win, but will need 27 horses to come out to get a run.