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2017 Derby Preview And Tips

Published on June 3, 2017 by Tim @ Betting Gods

The Derby (Saturday 3 June, 16:30) is the most prestigious horse race in the world, and has been run at Epsom since 1780. It is run over 12-furlongs.


10-Year-Trends

Winners have been drawn from 3 to 14, with two winners coming from stall 8

7 winners had won last time out

6 winners were trained in Ireland, three by Aidan O’Brien

Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori have both ridden 2 of the last 10 winners

SPs ranged from 8/13 to 7/1


Runner-By-Runner Guide

Benbatl
Quick learner whose form ties in closely with that of Cracksman and Permian after his second in the Dante. Plenty of money for him there, and combination of first-time tongue-tie and hood could spark further improvement, if bred to probably be better at 10-furlongs.

Best Solution
Didn’t take to dirt in Meydan, but belied his breeding to be a decisive winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial. Proven stamina, but can’t rule out, though drawn in stall-16.

Capri
Went close in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, and no surprise there has been plenty of each-way money around as he looks sure to relish the step-up to 12-furlongs.

Cliffs of Moher
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t look to have a star amongst his entries this year, but this one looks his most likely winner with Ryan Moore in the saddle. Looks sure to have improved plenty for his seasonal debut at Chester, and Authorised came from one stall wider the last time there were 19 runners.

Cracksman
Imposing type, and connections decided not to risk leaving this race behind by running him on soft ground in the Dante, where his form was boosted by the win of Permina. Frankie Dettori rides, and a draw in stall 7 looks ideal with 6 of the last 7 winners drawn between 7 and 12.

Crowned Eagle
John Gosden’s second string, but has something to find having only won a maiden and a handicap so far.

Douglas Macarthur
Won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, but Capri may have overtaken him over further, and he’s nearly drawn in the car park in stall 19.

Dubai Thunder
Has some high-class siblings in the shape of Farhh and Racing History, and hacked-up by 10-lengths on debut on soft ground. Interesting that connections pitch him at the deep-end on only his second start, though looks stable third-string on jockey bookings.

Eminent
Imposing Frankel colt who won a well-run Craven before disappointing in a slowly-run 2,000 Guineas. Connections not worried by that defeat though, as they’ve always considered him a middle-distance prospect, and he went into many notebooks with an eye-catching workout on the Breakfast With The Stars morning.

Glencadam Glory
John Gosden’s third runner, but hard to see why he’ll close the gap with Best Solution on their running in the Lingfield Derby Trial.

Khalidi
Another runner for John Gosden, but it looks a bit of an afterthought in an open year after he ran last weekend.

Pealer
Another Gosden trained horse but, though he’s a close relation to Potemkin, he needs a giant step forward to be competitive.

Permian
Professional horse from the Mark Johnston yard that should have no problem with trip or ground. Looks vulnerable to potential improvers, but no surprise if he’s there pitching at the finish.

Rekindling
Irish form ties in with the likes of Douglas Macarthur, but only fourth when well-backed in the Dante behind Permian. Should prefer better ground.

Salouen
Trainer has an excellent record at Epson, but it’s hard to see this one winning after being beaten in Listed and Group Races.

The Anvil
Stable would have some serious celebrations with Aidan O’Brien putting up his daughter Anastasia, but that probably reflects how far down the pecking order he is considered by the other stable jockeys.

Wings of Eagles
Finished best of all in the Chester Vase from an unpromising position, and should be well-suited to 12-furlongs, and interestingly drawn in stall-14.

Diora Lia

Totally out of depth, but hopefully won’t cause too many problems if lining-up from stall-17.


Summary

No winner has started bigger than 7/1 in the last 10 years, which means that the winner is highly likely to be either Cliffs Of Moher, Cracksman or Eminent. Therefore, as the last 7 winners have been drawn between stalls 5 and 12, the vote just goes to Cracksman, as Cliffs Of Moher is drawn in stall 13, whilst Eminent is drawn in stall 4.

Cracksman – win @ 5/1 PaddyPower, Betfred

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  1. I backed wings of eagles £1 win also £1 win on casual prince aso the oakes winner as well wings of eagles has run in top class races but no luck I knew it was a class act

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