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2017 Churchill Stakes Preview And Tip

Published on November 17, 2017 by Tim @ Betting Gods

The Churchill Stakes (Saturday 18 November, 2.45) is a 10-Furlong Listed Race run on the all-weather track at Lingfield. First run in 2000, it is open to horses aged three and older, and is now one of the Fast Track Qualifiers that awards the winner an automatic spot in the All-Weather Finals Day on Good Friday of the following year.

10-Year-Trends

6 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in stall-7 or higher, though 2 of the last 8 have been drawn in stall-1.

Six 3-year-olds have won, along with two 4-year-olds, one 5-year-old, and one 7-year-old

3 of the last 6 winners have been Godolphin owned 3-year-olds

SP’s have ranged from 8/11 to 15/2

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Ayrad

Has been a bit disappointing this season and, apart from a win in a 4-runnner race, has generally struggled in Listed and Group Races. However, remains the joint highest-rated runner in the field, and has a chance if he takes to the all-weather on his first try. Drawn in stall-8.

Battalion

In and out performer who ran below expectations when last seen on all-weather finals day. However, has won 4 of his 10 races over course and distance, including this race in 2014, and he’s actually 4 from 6 over course and distance between October and December. Stable 4 from 14 in November.

Master The World

Won a Goodwood Handicap off a mark of 103 in August, but struggled since, and looked short of the required class to win a race of this nature when twice placed over course and distance last season.

Petite Jack

2 from 2 over course and distance at a lower level, and only defeat in 6 runs at the track came when tried over 2-miles. Won a handicap at Chelmsford off 98 two starts ago and, though he ran averagely last time, can’t be ruled out back at Lingfield despite having a bit to find.

Sands Chorus

Over a stone to find with some of his rivals, and well-beaten on previous try at Lingfield. Hard to make a case for.

Victory Bond

Highly-tried after winning his maiden last season, but came good at Chelmsford last month when giving the re-opposing Boynton 4lb and a ½-length beating. Form at Chelmsford and Lingfield doesn’t always equate though, and doesn’t have the assistance of Ryan Moore today.

Boynton

Beaten again since finishing second to Victory Bond, but this lightly-raced Godolphin-owned 3-year-old may have needed a couple of runs to get back to full-fitness after 15-months off the track. If that’s the case, this American-bred horse is an interesting contender today on a course that should suit on pedigree, as he was good enough to win a Group 2 as a 2-year-old.

In The Lope

Won 3 of his 4 races this season and, though the form of those French Races is hard to equate to English form, he does have some influences in his pedigree that suggests he may take to the all-weather surface.

Mia Tesoro

Over 20lb to find with the best of these, and has a terrible record on the all-weather. Hard to see a reason why he’s even entered, let alone going to win.

Summary

Boynton is the best statistical-fit for the race, as he’s a Godolphin-owned 3-year-old with a wide-draw, in a race that often goes to a horse near the head of the market. Already the joint top-rated horse, he also has the most potential for improvement after just 5 runs, and his pedigree suggests he could find it here as he tackles this type of fast all-weather surface for the first time.

Tip : Boynton @ 11/4 Totesport or 5/2 WilliamHill, SkyBet

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