The BMW Championship has been the third-leg of the Fedex Play-Offs since 2007, and the top 70 players in the Fedex Cup Rankings head to the Conway Farms Golf Course in Illinois knowing that they need to make it into the top-30 in the rankings to make it to the Tour Championship at East Lake next week.
Conway Farms measures just under 7,200 yards, and the Tom Fazio designed layout hosted the event in both 2013 and 2015, when the winners were respectively Zach Johnson and Jason Day – which suggests that accuracy and power can both be utilised to win at a course where 20 under par is an achievable total.
However, with conditions hopefully being firmer this year than for either of the two previous renewals held here, accuracy may be more important with fescue rough awaiting wayward shots. The wind can also be a big defence for the course but, if it doesn’t blow, players may destroy it, such as Jason Day’s 61 in 2015, and Jim Furyk’s 59 in 2013.
BMW Championship Betting
Jordan Spieth 13/2, Dustin Johnson 8/1, Justin Thomas 11/1, Rickie Fowler 14/1, Hideki Matsuyama 14/1, John Rahm 14/1, Jason Day 18/1, Rory McIlroy 22/1.
As so many of the top players arrive here at the top of their games, and with so much at stake, it’s easy to see the world’s best players fighting out the finish.
Jordan Spieth heads the market, but hasn’t quite matched the course form of many of his peers with finishes of just 16th and 13th here on his previous visits. He tied with good friend Justin Thomas in 13th in 2015, and it’s Thomas who has made the most improvement since.
Two others near the head of the leaderboard, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama, tied for 7th here in 2015 – and could easily win this, though Johnson has the added pressure of defending the title having won it away from Conway Farms last season. John Rahm is harder to fancy as he makes his debut here, but he could just as easily take to the place like the proverbial duck to water. Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy was fourth here in 2015, but doubts remain as to how much he wants it this season.
Regardless, the player with the best course form is Jason Day, fourth here in 2013 before winning the 2015 renewal. The former world number one’s place at East Lake is also potentially in danger as he currently stands at number 28 in the rankings – and that combination of factors make him look a decent bet this week.
The only other player I want to back this week is Adam Hadwin, as the Canadian looks massively overpriced on what he’s achieved this season. After a 59 earlier in the campaign, he also has the ability to go really low if the wind fails to materialise.