2017 Ballyroan Stakes Preview And Tip

2017 Ballyroan Stakes Preview And Tip

August 9, 2017

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The Ballyroan Stakes (Thursday 10 August, 19:20) was established in 1991, and granted Group 3 status in 2007. It is run at Leopardstown over 12-furlongs, and is sponsored by Grenke Finance.

10-Year-Trends

4-year-olds have the best record with 4 wins

7 of the last 10 winners had won last time out

Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen teamed up for 4 consecutive wins between 2009 and 2012

Aidan O’Brien trained the winner in 2013, 2014 and 2015

Mores Well and Profound Beauty have both won consecutive renewals in the last 10 years

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Johannes Vermeer

Aidan O’Brien trained 4-year-old who is very useful at Group 3 Level, having won twice and placed once from 3 starts in this company. The second of those wins was last time out, when winning over 10 Furlongs here at Leopardstown. Yet to tackle 12-furlongs, but was sired by stamina influence Galileo. Shoulders a 3lb penalty.

Santa Monica

4-year-old filly who also carries a penalty for a Group 3 success two starts ago, but well-beaten in a fillies Group 1 next time, and the majority of her form leaves her with around a stone to find on official ratings.

Stellar Mass

Looked outclassed in Group 2 contests on his last two starts, but now bids to emulate the likes of Mores Well and Profound Beauty in winning back-to-back renewals of this race, so stamina looks assured.

The Grey Gatsby

Not won since winning the 2014 Irish Champion Stakes here at Leopardstown, and form generally regressive since, including when beaten by Johannes Vermeer on his first of two starts for Dermot Weld.

Act Of Valour

Already 7 times since April, but none of those runs suggest he’s up to winning this, and he was well-beaten in his one try at Group 3 Level.

Grandee

Listed winner over course and distance, but well-beaten in the Irish Derby, and the fact he was beaten at Listed Level last time suggests he has plenty to find.

Spanish Steps

Aidan O’Brien’s second string on jockey bookings and, after winning his maiden at the fourth attempt, he was well-beaten in a Group 1 on his last start. Potential improvement to come after just 5 starts, and gets 10lb and upwards from the older horses.

Summary

Not the most consistent bunch of horses, but Johannes Vermeer is proven at this level and fits plenty of the key statistics, so a win for Aidan O’Brien’s horse would come as no surprise, especially as Ryan Moore takes the ride. However, Stellar Mass proved his stamina for this trip when winning last year’s race, and looks better value at the prices as he bids to become the fourth horse to win back-to-back renewals this century.

Stellar Mass 1 Point Win @ 11/2 (6.50) ComeOn

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