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1,000 Guineas Preview And Tip

Published on May 7, 2017 by Tim @ Betting Gods

The 1,000 Guineas is the first Fillies Classic of the season, and takes place over 1-Mile at Newmarket (Sunday 7 April, 17:35). It was first run in 1814, and is named after the prize that the first-winner, Charlotte, received. However, Fillies are now deemed the equal of their male counterparts, and the winner now receives the same amount as the winner of the 2,000 Guineas.


10-Year-Trends

7 winners had won last time out

5 of the last 10 winners had a prep-race, but 5 didn’t

Winners have been drawn in stalls 2 to 16, with 3 drawn in stall-8

SP’s have ranged from 11/10 to 25/1

Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 5 winners

Ryan Moore has ridden 3 of the last 5 winners


Runner-By-Runner Guide

Ce La Vie

Class-5 Catterick Maiden winner who was out-classed in a Group-3 on her seasonal reappearance.

Daban

Only officially rated 81 before winning the Nell Gwyn on her reappearance, and she stayed on powerfully there over 7-furlongs in a way that suggested she’ll relish the mile here. Still needs to improve on that form though, if her form with the second Unforgettable Filly can be taken at face-value.

Dream Start

Failed to live up to her name when beating just one rival home on debut, and would be one of the shock-winners of all-time.

Fair Eva

One of two Frankel fillies in the race, and she was sent-off at odds-on for her last two starts after impressively winning her first two. She won’t win this if running like she did when defeated, but this big scopey filly could be much better as a 3-year-old.

Hydrangea

Won a Group-3 Trial for this in Ireland on her seasonal reappearance, but has to find 8-lengths with stablemate Rhododendron on their running over course and distance last season.

Intricately

Beat Hydrangea last season, but finished behind her in the aforementioned trial.

Kilmah

Finished behind several of these in previous battles, including this season, and no reason why she should close the gap.

Poet’s Vanity

Finished behind Daban and Unforgettable Filly on her seasonal debut, but improved markedly for her season debut last season, including when beating Unforgettable Filly 2-lengths in a Group-3.

Queen Kindly

Three-time winner as a two-year-old, but was disappointing on her seasonal debut. Didn’t break well there though having been sent-off second-favourite, but something to prove.

Rhododendron

Beat Hydrangea twice last season, but was beaten by Intricately in between. Connections happy to blame the yielding ground for that, and expect her to be well-suited by the quick-ground here. Ryan Moore stayed faithful to her last season, as he does here, which suggests she is the best of the Aidan O’Brien quartet.

Unforgettable Filly

Always looked like she would make a better 3-year-old, and trainer Hugo Palmer thinks she’s come on a bundle for her seasonal reappearance. However, her overall form suggests she has quite a bit to find with Rhododendron.

Urban Fox

Beat Unforgettable Filly last season, and another respectable effort when second on reappearance. Entitled to her place in the line-up, but will be a shock-winner.

Winter

Took her 3 goes to get off the mark in maidens, but took a big-step forward on her first-run for Aidan O’Brien when second to Hydrangea on her seasonal debut. Probably needs to take another big-step forward here, but could prove the biggest danger to stablemate Rhododendron if the money for this week is an accurate reflection of her chances.


1,000 Guineas Summary

An interesting renewal of the 1,000 Guineas, and it would be no surprise to see Rhododendron win, though odds of 6/4 make no appeal. However, whilst it’s no surprise that Ryan Moore stays loyal to her, the interesting each-way money has been for the well-bred Winter, and she looks the each-way value against the favourite with Paddy Power offering 4 places.

Winter,  Each-Way @ 9/1 (Paddy Power) 1/5 odds 1-2-3-4

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